Israel, Iran: Trigger warning
Also: the US, Ukraine, Russia, Indonesia, and Mali.
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ISRAEL. IRAN. Trigger warning
As Washington asks Tehran not to strike, it reveals its own weakness.
Iran was expected to strike Israel by Sunday, the Wall Street Journal said Thursday. The US asked China to urge Iran to act with restraint, a message also sent by Russia. Iran had signalled in turn it wanted to avoid escalation, Reuters said.
INTELLIGENCE. Washington’s distancing from Israel’s 1 April strike on the Iranian embassy in Damascus, and its subsequent urging that Tehran not escalate, shows a level of fear US policymakers would usually try not to convey. With its weakening grip on Benjamin Netanyahu, its reliance on diplomatic go-betweens, and its troops vulnerable to attack – as occurred in Jordan in January – the US appears almost as much at risk of strategic coercion as Iran.
FOR BUSINESS. While unwilling to recommit the blood and treasure of the forever wars, the US has found that Middle Eastern primacy isn’t possible on the cheap. As in Europe, where chinks in the armour arguably helped Vladimir Putin’s calculus on Ukraine, the escalation undertaken first by Hamas and then Israel would unlikely have occurred without US absence and inattention. For Iran not to escalate in turn, the US will need to start demanding, not asking.
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UNITED STATES. FISA out
A foundation of intelligence could go with a bang.
Hardline Republicans joined Democrats Wednesday to block the reauthorisation of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. The House Rules Committee met Thursday night to set up a new debate on the bill.
INTELLIGENCE. The bill is to allow the US government to continue collecting the communications of non-Americans outside the US without a warrant, albeit with additional safeguards. Such a proposal would have once been uncontroversial, but Donald Trump hit out at the law, which he says was used to spy on his 2016 campaign. Many progressives say it doesn't go far enough to prevent Americans from getting caught in the intelligence net.
FOR BUSINESS. An intelligence court decision means the program will continue for another year regardless, but unless it receives greater political support from Trump or the Democrats, it may ultimately fall victim to the culture wars. Americans have the right to privacy, and tech-driven concerns have risen since FISA was last reauthorised in 2017, but in a dangerous world, national security can depend on having eyes and ears where they shouldn't be.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Hard power
What energy infrastructure attacks say about the war.
Kyiv said Russian attacks had damaged energy facilities in Dnipropetrovsk and Kherson Friday following the destruction of a station near Kyiv. The IAEA said attacks on the Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant were "gravely dangerous".
INTELLIGENCE. Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure have led to a barrage of counterstrikes since March. And while Moscow has attacked energy facilities before, it has significantly escalated in tandem with a reduction in Kyiv’s air defences. If Kyiv is retaliating in turn on Zaporizhzhia this is indeed dangerous – and more so than the market-moving attacks on Russian oil facilities that the Pentagon has admitted it’s urged Ukraine cease.
FOR BUSINESS. Striking a nuclear plant, even if the reactors aren’t in target, seems foolish for a country once best known for a nuclear disaster. Kyiv hasn’t admitted the attacks, but likewise it would be mad if Russia was conducting them as a false flag. This illustrates the war’s increasing desperation and one reason why many of Kyiv’s supporters are now urging it to negotiate a ceasefire that Moscow might agree to. Switzerland hosts a peace summit in June.
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INDONESIA. The fulcrum pivots
A quiet giant may be finding its voice.
Jakarta denied reports Thursday it was preparing to recognise Israel as part of a bid to join the OECD. President-elect Prabowo Subianto met politicians on the second day of Eid ahead of formal talks to establish his cabinet later this year.
INTELLIGENCE. The end of Ramadan would be a curious time for Indonesia, the world’s largest Muslim-majority country, to announce the recognition of the Jewish state. Yet it may indeed happen. Using incumbent Joko Widodo’s lengthy lame-duck period until his inauguration in October, Prabowo is shaking things up. Last week, he visited China, Japan, and Malaysia. In the months ahead, he is expected, as defence minister, to sign a security pact with Australia.
FOR BUSINESS. Between the Indian and Pacific oceans, Widodo has called Indonesia the “global maritime fulcrum”, but it has so far stayed in neutral, unwilling to leverage its weight. The Western-educated but China-friendly Prabowo may be willing to change this, even if it costs political capital, of which he has plenty (having won 59% of the vote). With personal business interests, he may also be more willing to meddle in the economy, one of Asia’s strongest.his far out from election day, but many firms and governments are preparing for a Republican White House and Republican Senate, irrespective of the former president’s legal issues and the Democrats’ fundraising advantage.
THE SAHEL. Mali and the wailers
Oppression deepens in the coup belt.
Mali's junta banned the media from reporting on politics Thursday, a day after suspending all political activity. Journalists, politicians, civil society, and Western governments said the measure would only increase discontent.
INTELLIGENCE. The junta promised democracy within two years of seizing power in 2020 (extended after a second coup in 2021). Few, however, are surprised. An insurgency rages in the north. Key neighbours have also had coups. Russia has supplanted the West as Mali's key security partner. And elections may not mean much anyway. Nearby Chad heads to the polls next month. But its president faces little opposition, having killed his chief rival in February.
FOR BUSINESS. The West has wailed at these moves, but has little sway. Even neighbouring Niger, where the US still has 1,000 troops, is ignoring the protests (and has asked the Americans to follow the French and go). Russian troops and air defence systems arrived this week. Back in Mali, where they’re already there, Russia's Mir payment system is set to be introduced, an African first. Moscow is also the key player in Burkina Faso and the Central African Republic.
The U.S. is also trying to pressure Netanyahu, who arguably wanted a "restrained" Iranian strike in line with China and Russia's counsel to Tehran. He is getting increasingly desperate politically, and a consensus is probably growing among the bigger powers that his exit from office could be helpful to everyone.