Israel, Iran: Unbacked from the brink
Also: Lebanon, Syria, the US, Mexico, and Argentina.
In today’s dispatch:
ISRAEL. IRAN. A qualification of US support suggests efforts to de-escalate.
LEBANON. SYRIA. The war with Hezbollah moves beyond the border.
UNITED STATES. Port strikes and natural disaster lead to panic buying.
MEXICO. Sheinbaum faces the recoil of her predecessor’s policies.
ARGENTINA. Rising opposition won’t yet dent difficult reforms.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.
ISRAEL. IRAN. Unbacked from the brink
A qualification of US support suggests efforts to de-escalate.
Joe Biden said Wednesday he would oppose any strike on Iran's nuclear sites and wanted Israel to act "proportionally". Kamala Harris met Muslim-American leaders. The EU, UN, China and Russia urged Iran and Israel to avoid escalation.
INTELLIGENCE. The White House is walking back its earlier statement that it would support “severe consequences” for Iran. This may disappoint many in Israel, but it’s a reversion to previous messaging, following consultation with G7 allies. Back-channel talks with Iran’s allies are also no doubt taking place, including likely with Russia, which has reportedly provided Iran with S-400 missile defence systems across its installations in Kermanshah and Lorestan.
FOR BUSINESS. Iran already operates Soviet-era S-300 systems, plus other domestic, Western and Chinese capabilities, putting its air defences in a league above Hezbollah, let alone Hamas. Israel may still wish to go after Tehran’s strategic assets regardless of the risks, or uncertain US support, but Abraham Lincoln’s “one war at a time” dictum likely means it will want to finish the job in Lebanon (and possibly Yemen) first, before setting sights on Iran.
LEBANON. SYRIA. Damascene dispersion
The war with Hezbollah moves beyond the border.
Eight Israeli soldiers were killed in southern Lebanon, the IDF said Wednesday. Six were killed in strikes in central Beirut. Yemen's Houthis claimed responsibility for a drone attack in Tel Aviv. A Russian depot in Syria was reportedly hit.
INTELLIGENCE. Since last October, the war in Gaza has had a regional dimension, including with several attacks on Hamas, Hezbollah and Iranian targets in Syria. Yet