In today’s dispatch:
ISRAEL. IRAN. Tehran’s response will be mostly to save face.
INDIA. CHINA. Efforts to pivot Delhi to the West hit a wall.
BANGLADESH. The prime minister helps set off a new round of unrest.
NIGERIA. Kenya-style protests head to West Africa.
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO. Pestilence joins war as the DRC’s biggest threat.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.
ISRAEL. IRAN. Vengeance is mime
Tehran’s response will be mostly to save face.
Iran closed its airspace early Thursday after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said Israel deserved "harsh punishment" for the death of Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh. Hezbollah confirmed its military chief had been killed in an Israeli strike.
INTELLIGENCE. Flights around Tehran have ostensibly been restricted due to a memorial for Haniyeh, but there is speculation of an imminent reprisal attack. Such an attack will almost certainly happen at some stage, but like Iran’s retaliation for strikes on its Damascus embassy in April, it will most likely be performative, allowing both sides to retain their pride. Hezbollah is different. Already embroiled in daily conflict, the militia has less to lose from escalation.
FOR BUSINESS. Despite claims of Washington’s involvement by Tehran, US diplomats are working to diffuse matters. A war in Lebanon, let alone Iran, would be disastrous for the region, and Western interests. Similarly, Israel is now playing it cool, even speaking of an ongoing commitment to ceasefire talks. The biggest wildcard is whether the hawks in the Revolution Guard Corps outplay the doves in the presidency in influencing Khamenei’s decision-making.
INDIA. CHINA. BRIC laying
Efforts to pivot Delhi to the West hit a wall.
India and China agreed to speed up border negotiations, Beijing said Thursday. An Indian frigate joined Russian drills in the Gulf of Finland, a day after exercises with China. Washington said Delhi would "never be a formal ally" of the US.
INTELLIGENCE. India’s foreign minister met his US, Australian and Japanese counterparts Monday for the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. In the wake of