Israel, Iran: Waiting for the next calamity
Also: the US, Libya, Ukraine, Russia, and Serbia.
In today’s dispatch:
ISRAEL. IRAN. Fears return for an imminent retaliatory strike.
UNITED STATES. IRAN. Claims of election interference open a new front.
LIBYA. An internal power play escalates beyond Sharara.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. A fire breaks out at the Zaporizhzhia power plant.
SERBIA. Belgrade blames coup plotters on opposition to a lithium project.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.
ISRAEL. IRAN. Waiting for the next calamity
Fears return for an imminent retaliatory strike.
Israel now believes Iran to be planning a strike before Thursday, media said late Sunday. The IDF's rabbinate ordered soldiers not to fast on the holy day of Tisha B'Av, which begins at sunset Monday through to nightfall Tuesday.
INTELLIGENCE. Tisha B'Av marks the “Five Calamities”, including the destruction of the first and second temples. It would fit Iran's millennialist worldview to use such a date, but anticipation of terror is extension of terror, and Tisha B’Av is also famous for unfulfilled prophecy. Debate is said to meanwhile continue between Tehran’s moderates and hardliners over how and when to strike. Neither group wants war, but they differ on what will provide deterrence.
FOR BUSINESS. The sooner Iran and its proxies retaliate – acts expected to be largely symbolic, as in mid-April – the sooner airlines can return and the US can withdraw its costly naval deployments (it has ordered another submarine into the region and accelerated the arrival of an aircraft carrier group). Yet this will also return attention to a stalemate on hostages. Hamas said it won’t attend Thursday’s “last opportunity” talks after a strike killed 100 at a Gaza school.
UNITED STATES. IRAN. Line in the sandstorm
Claims of election interference open a new front.
Donald Trump's campaign said Saturday it had been hacked by foreign sources. Microsoft said Friday an Iranian cyber threat actor had targeted a presidential campaign. Journalists confirmed they had received JD Vance's vetting file.
INTELLIGENCE. The actor, “Mint Sandstorm” has also allegedly targeted dissidents since 2013, but the attempt at interfering in Trump’s campaign could