Israel, Iran: Fatal blow
Also: Lebanon, France, North Africa, Ukraine, Russia, China, and Taiwan.
In today’s dispatch:
ISRAEL. IRAN. The death of Hamas’s political chief sets a new course for the war’s end.
ISRAEL. LEBANON. A strike at the top of Hezbollah sends another message to Tehran.
FRANCE. NORTH AFRICA. Macron encounters controversy from Morocco to Mali.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. A potential visit to Kyiv could be a game-changer.
CHINA. TAIWAN. As leaders confront, officials collaborate.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.
ISRAEL. IRAN. Fatal blow
The death of Hamas’s political chief sets a new course for the war’s end.
Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran Wednesday, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards said, blaming a "Zionist airstrike". Israel did not comment. Hamas, whose officials are in ceasefire talks, called it a “grave escalation”.
INTELLIGENCE. After the alleged death of Mohammed Deif, Hamas’s military chief, on 13 July, Haniyeh’s killing could leave Hamas rudderless. Either way, the pretence of hostage negotiations, on which the White House has expended significant political capital, is all but over, and Netanyahu has signalled a desire to finish the war on his terms alone. It is possible an alleged hostage torture video, sent by Hamas to Israel’s cabinet, ended all hope for a ceasefire deal.
FOR BUSINESS. Gaza will be better off without Haniyeh but it’s not yet clear who will fill the void. The most likely option is a peacekeeping force of Arab troops (and possibly Indonesia, which is edging toward relations with Israel under Prabowo Subianto). This may involve a separate deal with Saudi Arabia, where custodianship of Al-Aqsa in Jerusalem may be thrown in the mix (Netanyahu recently admonished minister Itamar Ben-Gvir for visiting the shrine).
ISRAEL. LEBANON. Beirut causes
A strike at the top of Hezbollah sends another message to Tehran.
Israel claimed to have killed Fuad Shukr, one of Hezbollah's top commanders, Tuesday, in a strike on a Beirut apartment block. Hezbollah denied Shukr had been killed. The US killed four Iran-aligned militants in a strike south of Baghdad.
INTELLIGENCE. Shukr masterminded the deaths of 241 US marines in 1983 and has been one of the organisation's most wanted targets. If his death is confirmed, this