Israel, Lebanon: Blue Line, red lines
Israel, Lebanon: Blue Line, red lines
Also: Kosovo, Serbia, Gibraltar, the Sahel, and mpox.
In today’s dispatch:
ISRAEL. LEBANON. Concerns increase of a land invasion.
KOSOVO. SERBIA. The EU struggles to bridge a deepening divide.
GIBRALTAR. Starmer and Sanchez could realise a rare diplomatic success.
THE SAHEL. Wagner and the juntas face an emboldened Al-Qaeda.
MPOX. Limited foreign transmission enables a dangerous complacency.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.
ISRAEL. LEBANON. Blue Line, red lines
Concerns increase of a land invasion.
Israeli warplanes continued strikes in southern Lebanon into early Friday after Hezbollah's leader said a series of device explosions had "crossed all red lines". US officials told the Wall Street Journal they were concerned of a ground war.
INTELLIGENCE. Having caused carnage throughout Hezbollah’s command, Israel appears to be preparing for a ground assault across the so-called Blue Line, which demarcates the current boundary with southern Lebanon – a zone Israel has long wanted the Iranian-backed militia to vacate. Israel is likely to succeed. Like Hamas, Hezbollah is a shadow of its former self, but there are risks of Iranian retaliation. The US appears absent from all deliberations.
FOR BUSINESS. This could mark a bigger crisis than the 2006 Lebanon War, which at least had a relatively unified international response (in condemnation of Hezbollah) and came at a time when the US had unrivalled regional sway. Today, sympathies appear to be largely with the Lebanese. Hezbollah isn’t exactly loved beyond Iran’s axis of resistance, but any post-war reconciliation between Israel and the Arab world will now be much harder to achieve.
KOSOVO. SERBIA. Unhappy meal
The EU struggles to bridge a deepening divide.
The European Commission hosted the leaders of Kosovo and Serbia to a lunch on EU integration Thursday, but they wouldn’t speak, media said. The two sides refused to take part in trilateral peace talks scheduled for earlier in the week.
INTELLIGENCE. Both Kosovo and Serbia want deeper economic ties with the EU (though not necessarily at the expense of China, Turkey, or Russia), but
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