Israel, Lebanon: Fool me twice

Also: Ukraine, Russia, Japan, China, Malaysia, Mexico, and Colombia.

Sinking of the 'Jourdain' at Beirut, Louis Lebreton after M Mourgueville, 1863, coloured engraving, private collection.

In today’s dispatch:

• ISRAEL. LEBANON. After another wave of sabotage, the IDF heads north.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. A strike on a major armoury raises questions for both sides.

• JAPAN. CHINA. Beijing sends a menacing anniversary message.

• MALAYSIA. CHINA. Sultan Ibrahim seeks an audience with Xi Jinping.

• MEXICO. COLOMBIA. A lax approach to gangs and revolutionaries backfires.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.

ISRAEL. LEBANON. Fool me twice

After another wave of sabotage, the IDF heads north.

Handheld radios, phones, solar panels, car batteries, and intercoms belonging to Hezbollah members exploded across Lebanon Wednesday, killing 20 and injuring hundreds. Israeli jets bombed targets early Thursday as troops went north.

INTELLIGENCE. Israel’s cabinet has said a “new era” has begun with Hezbollah, a tacit acknowledgment of its role in two days of audacious attacks. With many of its key officers maimed, Hezbollah will be temporarily (and literally) blinded for what comes next. The risk now for Benjamin Netanyahu, who has otherwise calmed domestic opposition (including from his defence minister), is whether Iran decides to act on Hezbollah’s behalf in seeking revenge.

FOR BUSINESS. Netanyahu likely judges Iran won’t escalate days out from its president’s visit to the UN in New York. Yet a reprisal to the death of Hamas’s political chief in Tehran is still outstanding. And yet more Iranian prestige is on the line if its chief regional proxy is left humiliated. Beyond the military ramifications, there will likely be a response to the manufacturers of the exploded devices, and their countries of origin. Firms are already denying knowledge.

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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Tver and far

A strike on a major armoury raises questions for both sides.

A Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian arms depot in Tver caused a 14-square-kilometre explosion measuring 2.8 on the Richter scale Wednesday. Ukrainian media claimed arms, ammunition and missiles worth $200 billion were destroyed.

INTELLIGENCE. The value of the destruction is likely exaggerated, and the impact won’t necessarily reduce Russia’s numerical weapons advantage, but