Israel, Lebanon: The fire spreads
Also: Somalia, Algeria, South Africa, and Austria.
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ISRAEL. LEBANON. The fire spreads
A tit-for-tat could get out of control.
Hezbollah sent a record 215 rockets into Israel Wednesday following the death of a senior commander. The Pentagon urged restraint after hosting Lebanon's military chief, Joseph Aoun, for his first visit to Washington since February 2023.
INTELLIGENCE. Despite threats from both directions, Israel and Hezbollah, Iran’s most capable regional ally, have avoided a full-scale war since the conflict in Gaza began. The involvement of higher-grade weapons and the death of senior officials, however, could see an escalation beyond either side’s intentions. Hamas would welcome Hezbollah’s full engagement, but Lebanon’s non-sectarian military (Aoun is a Maronite Catholic) would take pains to avoid it.
FOR BUSINESS. Lebanon is broke and divided but the army is popular and well-funded by European allies, who despite misgivings about Israel would pressure Beirut to curtail Hezbollah’s involvement. If they can’t, there could be a conflagration neither side could afford. Their last war in 2006 only lasted a month but led to 1,200 deaths, including 165 Israelis. It also saw near-misses between Israeli jets and French and German ships. Lebanon's GDP fell by 22%.
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SOMALIA. The firearms spread
Reports the Houthis have re-engaged with al-Shabab.
More than 4,600 Somali soldiers have been killed this year fighting al-Shabab militants, local media claimed Wednesday. US intelligence has learned of plans by Yemen's Houthis to send the Islamist militia weapons, CNN said Tuesday.
INTELLIGENCE. The Houthis have backed al-Shabab before but with the Somali group’s links to al-Qaeda, ties are complex (as they are between Iran and al-Qaeda). Any plans to arm al-Shabab (presumably with Iranian weapons) would be an afront to Somalia, as well as its Turkish and Qatari patrons, complicating an already messy conflict. It would also prolong the dangers to regional shipping, with al-Shabab being a historic cause and beneficiary of piracy.
FOR BUSINESS. The Houthis are battling al-Qaeda in Yemen amid its fragile truce with the Saudi-backed government in Aden. Support for al-Shabab would show a readiness to look beyond this near enemy, and a need for cash.This should worry US forces in East Africa, already stretched and filling gaps in Somalia's security, following the exit of African peacekeepers. It could also hamper putative reconciliation efforts between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa.
ALGERIA. Shifting sands
Unrest in a semi-dictatorship.
Reports of weekend riots in the city of Tiaret emerged Wednesday amid a media blackout. A French news site reported US plans for a last-ditch conference to deal with Algeria's long-running dispute with Morocco over Western Sahara.
INTELLIGENCE. Algeria is Africa's largest country, at least in size, but little news reaches the English-speaking world, thanks in part to its government's suppression of the press. Ostensibly a democracy, and holding presidential elections in September, dissatisfaction could be building beyond the regime's control, both in the north, where most of the population lives, and in the far south, where 90,000 Western Saharan refugees have been based since 1975.
FOR BUSINESS. The UN, Europe and the US have struggled to find a solution to the Western Saharan conflict, whereby Morocco occupies the former Spanish territory and Algeria supports its opponents. A break on North African economic unity (the border has been closed since 1994), the conflict’s refugee population has also reportedly been a recent feeder for Russian mercenary groups, who have increased their presence in the wider Saharan region.
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SOUTH AFRICA. Zuma out?
The ANC may be close to forming a business-friendly government.
The ethnic-Zulu Inkatha Freedom Party agreed to join a coalition Wednesday with the African National Congress and the pro-business Democratic Alliance. The larger Zulu MK party sought a court stay on parliament's resumption Friday.
INTELLIGENCE. MK, formed by ex-president and ANC leader Jacob Zuma, won 14.6% of votes in last month's election, depriving the ANC of a majority for the first time since 1994. It would have been the natural fit for a coalition (albeit one long on corruption and incompetence) but Zuma’s intransigence may have backfired should the ANC go into a government with the white-majority DA, which many of its cadres have opposed against their better judgment.
FOR BUSINESS. A coalition with DA and IFP, a traditionally conservative party that has aligned with the ANC before, would be a salve for South Africa’s economic and governance ills. Some of the ANC’s more corrupt (and Russian-linked) members will oppose the move however and a reconciliation with MK – which DA would refuse to govern with – should not be ruled out. This would not just perpetuate Pretoria’s slow decline, but its drift to Beijing and Moscow.
AUSTRIA. Wiener roast
Viennese politics heats up.
The far-right Freedom Party (FPO) said Wednesday it was eyeing a victory in Vienna's next local elections after coming first in EU elections Sunday thanks to rural votes. Austria's centre-right government called national elections Tuesday.
INTELLIGENCE. The Austrian People’s Party (OVP) is near the end of its five-year term so elections this year were inevitable. It will hope that by 29 September it will have the chance to stall the FPO’s momentum, which has seen it bounce back from a 2019 Russian bribery scandal due to rising concerns over refugees. The FPO, which has proposed the EU form a “remigration” commission, currently leads the OVP and the Social Democrats by 11 points.
FOR BUSINESS. The FPO is arguably further to the right than Alternative for Germany.Founded by an ex-SS officer, it is controversial in polite circles but increasingly mainstream. It has tapped not just into identity politics but a rising ambivalence on Russia also common in nearby Hungary and Slovakia (one of its biggest banks remains in Moscow; a former foreign minister lives in St Petersburg). Should the FPO win power, Europe could have a new Viktor Orban.