Israel, Lebanon: Turning a new pager
Also: Iran, the Philippines, the Arctic, and Overseas France.
In today’s dispatch:
ISRAEL. LEBANON. Hezbollah gets a message it can’t ignore.
IRAN. Tehran prepares to walk a tightrope between Russia and the US.
THE PHILIPPINES. Marcos goes after his predecessor amid a string of fiascos.
THE ARCTIC. Russia looks north in case of escalation.
OVERSEAS FRANCE. Macron faces new crises in the Pacific and the Caribbean.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.
ISRAEL. LEBANON. Turning a new pager
Hezbollah gets a message it can’t ignore.
Hezbollah vowed revenge Tuesday after 9 were killed and almost 3,000 injured in a coordinated blast of Motorola and Apollo-branded pagers used by the militia for secure messaging. Iran's ambassador to Lebanon was among the injured.
INTELLIGENCE. It’s unknown how the devices detonated, whether through a signal to their batteries or sabotage at manufacture, but it’s almost certain to have been an Israeli setup. It’s also almost certain to propel Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent boost in the polls, despite the likelihood of a counterattack. The pagers’ destruction will limit Hezbollah’s immediate response, having complicated their ability to communicate, but it can’t politically be ignored.
FOR BUSINESS. Elaborate stunts, like the killings of Hamas’s political chief and Hezbollah’s military head in July, help Netanyahu politically but the consequences for Israel’s security and economy have been up for debate. The latest move could force Hezbollah to stop its attacks on Israel’s north (which Netanyahu officially made a war aim Monday) but the militia will be pressed to save face, particularly as it loses prestige in Lebanon’s contested political landscape.
IRAN. Balancing powers
Tehran prepares to walk a tightrope between Russia and the US.
President Masoud Pezeshkian said "we are brothers with the Americans" in press remarks ahead of his visit to New York next week. Pezeshkian hosted Russia's Sergei Shoigu on an unannounced visit to Iran, vowing to upgrade relations.
INTELLIGENCE. Iran is under fire for allegedly sending Russia ballistic and hypersonic missiles (one of which was recently used by the Houthis to strike Israel). It is struggling to