Israel, Lebanon: United fronts
Also: the US, Iran, Ukraine, Russia, China, Southeast Asia, France, and Martinique.
In today’s dispatch:
ISRAEL. LEBANON. The US sends air support as the UN is told to leave.
UNITED STATES. IRAN. As rhetoric escalates, the proven threats lie within.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Moscow turns its attention to the southwest.
CHINA. SOUTHEAST ASIA. Agreeing to disagree on the South China Sea.
FRANCE. MARTINIQUE. Cost-of-living riots take a deadly turn.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, a specialist advisory firm helping companies map, monitor and manage geopolitical risk.
ISRAEL. LEBANON. United fronts
The US sends air support as the UN is told to leave.
The US will send Israel its Terminal High Altitude Area Defense missile system along with 100 troops, the White House said Sunday. The UN claimed Israeli tanks had burst through the gates of a peacekeeping base in southern Lebanon.
INTELLIGENCE. Benjamin Netanyahu has called on the UN’s 10,000-strong force to withdraw, claiming Hezbollah is using its peacekeepers as human shields and that the base manoeuvre was a tactic to recover wounded soldiers. In the wake of attacks in Beirut, multiple peacekeeper injuries, and international condemnation, the move is provocative, but for as long as US support remains strong (and it’s now arguably increasing), UN warnings will be mostly ignored.
FOR BUSINESS. Inured by a year’s condemnation on Gaza, Netanyahu will judge the risks in Lebanon are worth taking. White House misgivings (and embarrassment over ceasefire talks) have been overtaken by pre-election calculation. Yet the risk in the THAAD deployment is not so much its political message, but what it says about Israel’s existing air defences. Hezbollah drones managed to evade the Iron Dome late Sunday, killing four soldiers and wounding 58.
UNITED STATES. IRAN. Own worst enemies
As rhetoric escalates, the proven threats lie within.
Iran said Sunday it had "no red lines" in defending itself. Kamala Harris said "all options were on the table" to stop Iran's nuclear goals. Donald Trump had requested military aircraft to counter Iranian death threats, the New York Times said.
INTELLIGENCE. When asked about national security, Harris said it was “obvious” Iran was the US’s “greatest adversary”. Trump has