Israel, Lebanon: Will it last?
Also: the US, Germany, India, and Pakistan.
The five things you need to know today:
ISRAEL. LEBANON. A 60-day truce seems close, with caveats.
UNITED STATES. Trump’s pledge of a 25% tariff needn’t come true.
GERMANY. Industrial layoffs rise ahead of a snap election.
INDIA. The prime minister is on the back foot.
PAKISTAN. Islamabad faces its biggest danger since May 2023.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, a specialist advisory firm helping companies map, monitor and manage geopolitical risk. Based on the US Presidential Daily Brief, it’s not news, it’s intelligence.
ISRAEL. LEBANON. Will it last?
A 60-day truce seems close, with caveats.
Israel's cabinet appeared poised to agree to a 60-day ceasefire with Hezbollah Tuesday morning as media reported an imminent announcement from Joe Biden. Members of Benjamin Netanyahu’s government said they opposed the deal.
INTELLIGENCE. Ceasefires in Lebanon and Gaza have been on the cards for months. Yet so far the opportunity costs for Netanyahu, who holds the military advantage, have been too great. With a fractious coalition threatening a constitutional crisis (or at least an election he may not win), he will need an offer too good to refuse. The pressure may need to come from Donald Trump, otherwise Netanyahu will be incentivised to hold out for a "grand bargain".
FOR BUSINESS. Even if a truce is agreed, the question remains how long it will last. And even if it lasts, it’s uncertain how long Netanyahu can survive.International isolation hasn’t hurt him politically (indeed, it's been the opposite), yet it’s hurting the economy, and hence the median voter. There’s also the risk a future deal from Trump isn’t as good for Israel as hoped, particularly if Washington’s bigger goal of Iranian denuclearisation (or regime change) is prioritised.
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UNITED STATES. Invasion invective
Trump’s pledge of a 25% tariff needn’t come true.
Donald Trump said Monday he would place a 25% tariff on all goods from Mexico and Canada "as one of my many first Executive Orders". Trump later said Chinese imports would be taxed an extra 10%. The dollar rose 2% against the peso.
INTELLIGENCE. Many experts believe Trump means what he says. Others think it's negotiating bluster. We follow the dictum it’s