Israel, Palestine: Checkmate and the state
Also: Russia, China, the Philippines, Japan, the US, Malaysia, and Myanmar.
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ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Checkmate and the state
A vote on Palestinian statehood will vex Washington.
The UN Security Council Monday referred Palestine's 2011 UN membership application for deliberation. Israel's UN ambassador said it would be a "Palesti-Nazi state". Benjamin Netanyahu said a date had been set for a Rafah offensive.
INTELLIGENCE. After abstaining from a UNSC resolution against Israel, the next test for the US will be on Palestinian statehood. The US’s veto has so far been the only thing standing in the Palestinian Authority’s way. The US has again indicated it is against statehood, but having suggested in January it might review its position, and needing a stronger point of leverage over Netanyahu, it may use the threat to force Israel into a ceasefire. Israel says it won’t back down.
FOR BUSINESS. UN membership would be a symbolic win for Palestine, but with 140 countries (and the UN) already recognising it as a sovereign state, the change wouldn’t mean much practically. Besides the US and Israel, only Canada, the Czech Republic, Panama and four Pacific microstates voted no in the UN’s last resolution on Palestinian statehood in 2012. It is not yet an observer to the World Trade Organization. It is already a member of UNESCO.
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RUSSIA. CHINA. BRICS and mortars
The US helps set Sino-Russian ties in stone.
Russia's foreign minister said he and his Chinese counterpart agreed Tuesday to deepen security cooperation. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned of "significant consequences" to any Chinese firms helping Russia's war effort.
INTELLIGENCE. Sergei Lavrov’s visit to Beijing, just as Yellen left, was a reminder of the entwined security dilemmas the US faces at the eastern and western ends of the Eurasian landmass. The Sino-Russian partnership, while relatively shallow for now, represents a long-term challenge to Western hegemony, but the methods of containing it have, so far, only contributed to its rise. The more the West sanctions and isolates both sides, the more they’ll come together.
FOR BUSINESS. There are no good options for Russia or China’s containment. Both are strategic adversaries to the West. Leaving open trade, investment and data exchange with them is not only strategically risky, but politically unacceptable. Further, in the case of Russia, economic punishment is among the few means available, short of war, through which to help Ukraine. China is almost certainly helping arm Russia. But what to do is another thing entirely.
THE PHILIPPINES. JAPAN. UNITED STATES. South China decree
Washington’s latest trilateral could be a three-legged race.
The White House Monday outlined the forthcoming visits of the leaders of Japan and the Philippines, including for inaugural trilateral talks. Protesters in Manila Tuesday trampled on an effigy of Xi Jinping outside the Chinese embassy.
INTELLIGENCE. Washington (and the protesters) have signalled that Beijing’s destabilising actions in the South China Sea will be countered. Yet from China’s perspective, a US-Japan-Philippines summit is what’s destabilising. Already wary of other US ‘minilaterals’ like the Quad and AUKUS, which now both feature Japan, China is establishing groups of its own, as well as reviving links with pariahs, like North Korea and Afghanistan, the US has urged it to ignore.
FOR BUSINESS. Beijing can be satisfied that most new groups, like the Quad and the short-lived ‘I2U2’ of India, Israel, the UAE, and the US, go nowhere. And in some ways, each new forum is dilutive of the last (as a Japanified AUKUS may be for the Quad). And if coordinating with allies like Japan has its challenges, with the Philippines – an ASEAN member and Russian defence buyer – it’ll be even harder. Manila on Monday said it would continue to engage Beijing.
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THE PHILIPPINES. MALAYSIA. South of the South China Sea
Pirates and terrorists are a more immediate threat than warships.
Malaysian maritime police were injured Sunday during patrols in the Celebes Sea. Five Abu Sayyaf militants surrendered to Philippines authorities in Mindanao over the weekend following a pro-IS attack on a government base last week.
INTELLIGENCE. A constellation of Islamist, communist, criminal, and purely opportunistic actors plague the islands and waters of the southern Philippines and eastern Malaysia. The threat isn't new – rebels have waged war since the 1950s (and arguably before) – but the revival of ISIS in Afghanistan and Central Asia, as well as post-Gaza radicalisation, prompts questions of whether a narco-fuelled Jihad is ready to resurface in Southeast Asia as well.
FOR BUSINESS. In terms of lives lost and delayed development, the southern Philippines conflict – not Manila’s shadow war with Beijing – is what matters. GDP per capita in Bangsamoro, the centre of the insurgency, is $1,177. In Ilocos, home of the presidential Marcos clan, it's $2,414, while in Manila it's $7,812. The gap between Malaysia's Sabah and KL is just as bad, though in the Islamist-dominated state of Kelantan, on the restive Thai border, it's worse.
MYANMAR. Coup and through
The junta is in the fight of its life.
Thailand's prime minister said Monday now would be a good time for Myanmar to open talks on its two-year insurgency, with anti-junta groups seizing control of key towns. Myawaddy, on the Thai border, was overrun on the weekend.
INTELLIGENCE. Rebels control key crossings into China, Thailand, and India. Those countries, in turn, have beefed up their own security and in some cases are dealing directly with anti-regime authorities. The military still controls the Burmese heartland, but even its isolated capital of Naypyidaw has come under attack. The region is preparing for what’s next. The UN last week appointed former Australian foreign minister Julie Bishop as its special envoy.
FOR BUSINESS.The military’s days are numbered, but this doesn’t mean a return to human rights or democracy. Inter-ethnic conflict has been the norm, not the exception, since Myanmar's independence and for many, it was only the military that held the country together. The uncertainty will likely keep most investors away, but some are trying their luck. Russia last month held talks on building a deep-water port in Dawei after a Thai consortium pulled out.