Israel, Palestine: Common criminals
Also: South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Libya, Russia, and West Africa.
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ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Common criminals
By lumping Hamas and Netanyahu together, the ICC indicts itself.
The International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants Monday for the leaders of Hamas and Israel, including Benjamin Netanyahu and his defence minister. Netanyahu described the move as antisemitic. Joe Biden said he was outraged.
INTELLIGENCE. Whether intended, the ICC made a political point by lumping Hamas – whose murder and abductions were prima facie a crime against humanity – with Israel, whose response, whatever one may personally think, can be seen as that of a democracy with a security dilemma. Irrespective of the findings, the ICC’s legitimacy and standing have thus been eroded in ways that will only further erode the legitimacy and standing of the global order writ large.
FOR BUSINESS. Going after Vladimir Putin was one thing, discrediting the ICC in much of the world outside the West. Going after Netanyahu has discredited the body in much of the West, including the US, which will feel vindicated for never agreeing to join in the first place. Yet a warrant needn’t be a life sentence (at least for the indicted). Kenya’s president was charged with crimes against humanity in 2014. On Thursday, Biden will home him to a state dinner.
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SOUTH AFRICA. Zuma fatigue
A reinstated ban relieves the ANC but not the country.
The Constitutional Court ruled Monday ex-president Jacob Zuma cannot run for parliament, due to a 2021 15-month contempt of court prison sentence. Zuma's new uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party said it would strengthen their campaign.
INTELLIGENCE. Zuma had pledged to win a majority on 29 May. This was never going to happen. But by banning him a week from the vote, Pretoria has turbocharged his claims of grievance, which build on the ethnic disaffection that led to 2021’s week of riots and 350 deaths. And while Zuma has undoubtedly engaged in criminality, the ruling African National Congress may not be far behind, with credible claims of illicit financing, some of it linked to the Kremlin.
FOR BUSINESS. Having pursued lawfare abroad (it is leading a genocide case against Israel – separate from the ICC – in the International Court of Justice), South Africa is doing it at home. Taking Zuma off the ballot improves the ANC’s chances of not needing to govern in coalition (at least with him) but its falling approval ratings are self-inflicted, thanks to its cronyism, corruption, and incompetence. This may have accelerated under Zuma but is now structural.
SAUDI ARABIA. Father complex
The King’s ill health complicates MBS’s agenda.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman postponed a visit to Japan Monday as King Salman, 88, underwent treatment for lung inflammation. Washington and Riyadh were close to a "near final" defence pact, the White House said Monday.
INTELLIGENCE. MBS, as he is known, has been busy hosting National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and overseeing a major airline conference, a deal to sponsor the WTA's women's tennis tournament, and the Kingdom's first swimsuit fashion show. His frenetic reforms may accelerate once he takes the crown, but King Salman’s departure could upend an uneasy truce with Saudi Arabia’s religious establishment, which has been begrudgingly sidelined in recent years.
FOR BUSINESS. MBS will hope a pact with the US can be agreed before his father dies. He will need guaranteed US support as he makes further reforms in the years ahead. Yet a final deal will need to involve Israel, and the war in Gaza makes this difficult for all. It will also rest on the Kingdom’s ability to pay its way. Strong oil prices support this for now, but MBS’s economic diversification plans are struggling. His flagship NEOM project seems lost in the desert.
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LIBYA. RUSSIA. Khalifa and the Kremlin
Russian soldiers head to Tobruk.
The eastern government of Khalifa Haftar, headquartered in Tobruk, awarded Russia's Tatneft an oil refining deal, media said Monday. Fighting between Libyan factions Saturday killed one in Libya's west. Fighting began near Tripoli Friday.
INTELLIGENCE. In between peace talks and pragmatic deals on oil revenue, a low-level war continues between Haftar’s Libyan National Army, assorted militias, and the UN-recognised authorities in Tripoli. Generally, this doesn’t interrupt business, for the West or anyone, but Russian troops are “flooding” into Tobruk, according to investigative outlet Meduza, and there are rumours Haftar will make a push for total control before promised elections can be held.
FOR BUSINESS. Moscow is eyeing a base in Tobruk, both to support Haftar and manage its interests in the Sahel (it has troops across Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, and potentially Sudan and Chad) and the Mediterranean (supported by a facility in Syria). It helps that Libya is oil-rich with much of its infrastructure still intact, despite the civil war in the wake of NATO’s 2011 intervention. Like the colonists of old, Russia wants its foreign ventures to be self-sustaining.
WEST AFRICA. RUSSIA. The gates of Sahel
Moscow has ambitions beyond its landlocked vassals.
Benin last week agreed to lift an embargo on piped Nigerien oil exports from the Port of Cotonou. Guinea-Bissau special forces would undergo training in Chechnya, Russian authorities announced. Russia opened an embassy in Sierra Leone.
INTELLIGENCE. Russia is probing West African countries for port access, which would benefit its commercial operations and friends in the interior, but also present options for an Atlantic military presence, if and when it can afford to sustain one. The moves come as Senegal's new pan-Africanist president last week questioned France's military presence and vowed to review the country’s oil and mining agreements, many of which involve French firms.
FOR BUSINESS. Russia's interests in West Africa fell after the end of the USSR, but relations have accelerated in recent years, boosted by Moscow's efforts to cultivate diplomatic allies on Ukraine, and the Kremlin's hostile takeover of Wagner Group, the mercenary outfit that provided security for many regimes.Rail projects have become the latest vector. Plans are afoot to link Togo to the Sahel and then to Libya. Similar talks are happening with Guinea-Bissau.
To suggest that the ICC's decision to pursue Netanyahu somehow discredits it amongst the political elite in the west only reinforces the disconnect between politicians and the common man. Everyone can see the war crimes unfolding in real time, it is only the politicians that seem to be immune to the imagery. And to emphasise Hamas's role by stating that their "murder and abductions were prima facie a crime against humanity" but not provide a similar indictment on Israel's actions at any point since 1948 only shows your bias in the writing of this story.
The common person would see the ICC's attempt to hold people to account for their crimes as an overwhelming win against a fascist/apartheid state, the only erosion here is in our trust of politicians to act on the behalf of their constituents instead of big business/money interests.