Israel, Palestine: Cut off at the impasse
Also: the US, Thailand, Australia, Indonesia, and Belgium.
In today’s dispatch:
ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Hamas declines Antony Blinken’s ‘bridging offer’.
UNITED STATES. By staying in the way, the president keeps Trump in play.
THAILAND. Thaksin’s court case is adjourned as Paetongtarn forms government.
AUSTRALIA. INDONESIA. Canberra and Jakarta enshrine blank space into law.
BELGIUM. An extension is given to form an improbable coalition.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.
ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Cut off at the impasse
Hamas declines Antony Blinken’s ‘bridging offer’.
The US Secretary of State said Monday Israel had agreed a "bridging offer" toward a ceasefire in Gaza. Hamas dismissed the latest proposal. Benjamin Netanyahu was said to expect any deal to crumble within weeks, even if signed.
INTELLIGENCE. After nine trips and enormous White House capital – including the deployment of carrier strike groups and approval for $20 billion in military sales – Blinken is no closer to having Israel end the war in Gaza. His latest manoeuvre allows blame for the impasse to shift back to Hamas, but the fighting and the protests grind on. Normally, he’d be expected to give up, but at least the pretence of negotiations allows Iran to forestall any retaliation.
FOR BUSINESS. Blinken’s circular diplomacy has the appearance of haggling in the bazaar, but the process at least allows for the war’s containment (versus Ukraine and Russia, where talks aren’t even taking place). The US can also afford the costs. Yet the closer a deal gets to the election, the more the inevitable trade-offs will play into a polarised debate. This will only get worse should additional evidence emerge that Iran is close to producing a nuclear bomb.
UNITED STATES. Biden her time
By staying in the way, the president keeps Trump in play.
Joe Biden endorsed Kamala Harris at the Democratic National Convention Monday, denying anger at being asked to step down. House Republicans said Biden had committed crimes but stopped short of recommending impeachment.
INTELLIGENCE. Biden's speech was valedictory, except he will stay on until January. His low approval will ensure this is