Israel, Palestine: Easier said than done

Also: Ukraine, Russia, Bangladesh, Myanmar, China, and the US.

The Storm on the Sea of Galilee, Rembrandt, 1633, oil on canvas, missing from the Isabella Stewart Gardner Museum, Boston.

In today’s dispatch:

• ISRAEL. LEBANON. Hezbollah says its retaliation is ‘complete’. Iran says otherwise.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Both sides see an uptick in messages and missiles.

• BANGLADESH. Dhaka accuses Delhi of ‘water terrorism.’

• MYANMAR. As junta strongholds fall, China sends troops to the border.

• CHINA. UNITED STATES. Biden sends his chief adviser to Beijing.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.

ISRAEL. LEBANON. Easier said than done

Hezbollah says its retaliation is ‘complete’. Iran says otherwise.

Hezbollah said its reprisal for Israel's July assassination of its top military commander had been "completed" Sunday, after hundreds of rockets and drones were launched across the border. Israel said it had thwarted a larger attack.

INTELLIGENCE. Both Israel and Hezbollah can claim victory in a show of force that expressed technical ability but only saw a handful of casualties (per Iran’s retaliation in April for an attack on its Damascus embassy). Yet comments from Tehran that its own response to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was yet to come (and would be "definite and calculated") suggests the threat of escalation is not yet over, even if it’s now somewhat diminished.

FOR BUSINESS. Many flights remain cancelled. For every sigh of relief there’s fear of more to come. The war in Gaza grinds on and another round of ceasefire talks has stalled. Benjamin Netanyahu’s increasingly unpopular government is showing more signs of fraying. Defence minister Yoav Gallant said Monday security minister Itamar Ben Gvir was "endangering" Israel. The OECD Thursday said Israel recorded the group’s biggest slowdown during the last quarter.

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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Telegram and transfer

Both sides see an uptick in messages and missiles.

Russian strategic bombers launched a massive round of air strikes on Kyiv Monday, following earlier drone attacks. Volodymyr Zelensky said more land had been seized in Kursk. The owner of Russia’s Telegram was arrested in France.

INTELLIGENCE. As fighting continues on both sides of the border, there have been tentative signs of peace. Hosting