Israel, Palestine: Future imperfect
Also: Iraq, the US, India, and Uganda.
In today’s dispatch:
ISRAEL. PALESTINE. With things in flux, politics goes into overdrive.
IRAQ. As the US again eyes a withdrawal, Turkey waits in the wings.
UNITED STATES. Harris has a strong start, but the challenge lies ahead.
INDIA. Modi's budget takes aim at unemployment, and unpopularity.
UGANDA. Youth-led protests spread from neighbouring Kenya.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.
ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Future imperfect
With things in flux, politics goes into overdrive.
Benjamin Netanyahu will speak to Congress Wednesday, Kamala Harris and Joe Biden Thursday, and Donald Trump Friday, in his first US visit since the Gaza war began. Israel slammed a Fatah-Hamas deal on a post-war government.
INTELLIGENCE. The uncertainty in US politics is not the only thing Netanyahu will have in mind. Beyond the future of his own fragile coalition, Israel needs to turn its mind to the future of governance in Gaza. His right-wing allies want to rebuild Israeli settlements. The centre seeks a peacekeeping force comprised of Arab armies (possibly with troops from Indonesia and Malaysia). For both, as well as the US, a China-brokered deal to include Hamas is a non-starter.
FOR BUSINESS. The Palestinian Authority’s agreement with Hamas gave Beijing face, but the secularists in Fatah, who hate Hamas even more than the Israelis, know the Muslim Brotherhood offshoot is a spent force, even if its ideology and a residual underground resistance will likely endure. And besides the lip-service paid in Turkey and Qatar, only Iran supports the militia. And, under its new moderate president, Tehran is unlikely to stand on principle.
IRAQ. Forever has its day
As the US again eyes a withdrawal, Turkey waits in the wings.
Baghdad has asked Washington to start withdrawing remaining troops by September, sources said Tuesday. Iraq opened a power line from Turkey Sunday. Its parliament published a ban of the Turkey-proscribed Kurdish PKK militia.
INTELLIGENCE. The US has wanted an out for years, and whether Trump or Harris wins, there’s little political appetite to remain. US counter-terrorism interests will