Israel, Palestine: Make no mistake
Also: Iran, Tunisia, China, Taiwan, and Vanuatu.
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ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Make no mistake
Netanyahu contends with a ‘tragic mishap’.
Benjamin Netanyahu said a strike at a displaced persons camp in Rafah was a "tragic mishap". The attack, which killed 45, had earlier been claimed as a precise operation against two militants. An Egyptian soldier was killed near the border.
INTELLIGENCE. Following last week’s charges from the International Criminal Court and the International Court of Justice, Netanyahu must be careful not to further alienate his allies, who are under pressure to somehow end the conflict. The US has so far been less critical on the Rafah strike than previous incidents, but France said it was “outraged” and the EU “horrified”. As for Egypt, many will be just as worried, though Cairo has not sought to escalate.
FOR BUSINESS. Sunday’s strike on Rafah followed a Hamas missile attack on Tel Aviv, its first in months. There won’t necessarily be further retaliation, but Israel is rapidly losing the war for public opinion. Things are especially shaky with its closest Arab partners, Egypt and Jordan. The former is seeking a détente with Iran and has grown more vocal, despite historic misgivings on Hamas. The latter is threatened by renewed Iran-backed domestic opposition.
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IRAN. Time bomb
Tehran gets closer to a nuclear weapon.
Confidential UN reports seen Monday suggest Iran has enough weapons-grade uranium for three nuclear bombs. Sources said the US was blocking a France and UK-backed resolution on Iran at the International Atomic Energy Agency.
INTELLIGENCE. Ongoing reports that the White House is soft on Iran are manna for the Republican Party at this stage in the election cycle. This is particularly so as Israel and the West fight a multi-theatre battle against Iranian proxies, a group of whom killed three US soldiers in January, as was commemorated in a Memorial Day service on Monday. It’s unclear what Washington’s strategy will be. Recent indirect US-Iran talks held in Oman may one day offer clues.
FOR BUSINESS.As it deepens cooperation with Russia and China, and continues to sponsor terrorist actors, Iran will likely remain an enemy of the US for some time yet. Still, there are suggestions the son of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Mojtaba, may seek accommodation with the West and embark on reforms (at least culturally and economically, if not politically) in the manner of Saudi Arabia’s Muhammad bin Salman, whom he is said to admire.
TUNISIA. Saied state of affairs
A return to the Arab winter.
Journalists called for the release of two reporters Monday, following a series of protests throughout Tunis in the wake of their arrest and those of another eight activists and lawyers. President Kais Saied reshuffled his cabinet Saturday.
INTELLIGENCE. In the model of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, who was toppled by Arab Spring protesters in 2011, Saied has centralised control and pursued a conservative though not particularly Islamist model of authority in a society that is traditionally among the Arab world's more liberal. He has made targets of Israel, African refugees and the press to mask Tunisia’s faltering economy and precarious place in an unstable region. He essentially rules by decree.
FOR BUSINESS. The EU, particularly Italy, relies on Saied to keep migrant crossings in check but his questionable methods and declining popular support may make him an unreliable ally. Not that Europe has much choice. Libya remains without a unified government. Egypt is fighting fires on all sides. Algeria, which goes to the polls on 7 September, does not have a refugee deal with the EU and is vulnerable across its wide borders with Niger and Mali.
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CHINA. TAIWAN. Game of go
As congressmen visit Taipei, Beijing goes abroad.
A congressional delegation met Taiwan's new president Monday, promising the weapons previously approved by the US. Guatemala's president Friday said China had blocked the sale of coffee and nuts over diplomatic ties with Taiwan.
INTELLIGENCE. Many cite Sun Tzu in the argument that Beijing wants to take Taipei without firing a shot. No doubt. But its strategy may have more useful antecedents to examine in the game of weiqi (go), where the aim is to enclose spaces as much as capture pieces. Beijing is doing that by isolating Taiwan diplomatically and pressuring its commercial partners. Besides the Vatican, only eleven UN members now recognise Taipei as an independent state.
FOR BUSINESS. After flipping Nauru in January and Honduras last year, China’s likely next targets are Tuvalu and Guatemala. Both have said they’ll stay loyal to Taipei but the Chinese market is a pull-strategy without compare. It’s a similar case with Paraguay. Asunción has rebuffed Beijing’s direct advances, but is eyeing a gas pipeline deal with Brazil and Argentina, which could involve a firm with close Chinese ties, and has previously met with Huawei officials.
CHINA. VANUATU. Et tu?
New Caledonia’s nearest neighbour hosts a senior guest.
The Chinese Communist Party's international relations chief extolled cooperation with Vanuatu Monday, in a speech attended by Prime Minister Charlot Salwai. Vanuatu will hold a referendum Wednesday designed to end "party hopping".
INTELLIGENCE. With its legislators free to switch parties, Vanuatu is in a near constant state of flux, with minor issues eliciting votes of no confidence. That, at least, is the narrative. Either way, the instability has led China to make inroads, causing a belated reaction in the West. Chinese police advisers are now matched by US coast guard patrols. Visits from Chinese officials were followed by Emmanuel Macron last year, campaigning against “new imperialism”.
FOR BUSINESS. Macron was in the neighbourhood last week, seeking to douse unrest in New Caledonia, but did not stop by Vanuatu. French influence in the former condominium is waning. Australia and China are the biggest players. They will face their next contest over the fate of state-owned Air Vanuatu, which recently had its sole jet aircraft repossessed after the government had to wind down funding due, in part, to the burden of public debts owed to China.