Israel, Palestine: Plan of the attack
Also: Ukraine, Russia, Hungary, the US, China, and the Pacific.
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ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Plan of the attack
Netanyahu may not be bluffing on Rafah.
Joe Biden said Monday he hoped for a ceasefire in Gaza within the week. Israel sent a delegation to Doha so 'proximity' negotiations could take place with Hamas. Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday Israel would attack Rafah regardless.
INTELLIGENCE. Hopes have risen for a ceasefire before a ground assault begins on Rafah, in Gaza’s south. Yet, with Hamas’s elimination still a greater objective for most Israelis, it is hard to see a durable peace based on a hostage deal alone. A ceasefire is, however, what Biden will press for. Ahead of primaries in Michigan, home to numerous Muslims, and after the self-immolation of a US serviceman in Washington, the conflict has become a domestic issue.
FOR BUSINESS. Netanyahu’s calculations are not the only reason to be cautious about a ceasefire. Hamas continues to make demands irreconcilable with Israel’s security. And despite the optics of proximity talks in Doha – where Qatari officials shuffle between rooms – such efforts have frequently failed. Israel's military has meanwhile proposed civilian evacuation plans, tensions have re-escalated in Lebanon, and the Palestinian Authority is eyeing a reshuffle.
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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Attack of the plans
Carrots and sticks are tossed into Kyiv’s rear-guard action.
Western troops in Ukraine should not be "ruled out", Paris said Monday. Berlin explained its reluctance to send long-range missiles. An ally of Alexei Navalny said he was to have been swapped with a Russian agent held in Germany.
INTELLIGENCE. Kyiv and its allies are sending conflicting signals on the next steps in the war. Moscow, of course, excels in conflicting signals – the suggestion Navalny was killed as a warning on Westerners in Russia is a case in point (he reportedly was to have been exchanged alongside two Americans for an FSB officer jailed in Germany) – and there will be more such positioning ahead of potential peace talks in Switzerland, to be held before summer.
FOR BUSINESS. Russia will press for territorial advantage if the US doesn’t send more arms. This could force the West to consider economic escalation, such as the seizure of Russian reserves, even if their release is then traded for any armistice. The West won’t want to reward Russian aggression, but by the time a settlement is reached, a new, Ukraine-sceptic faction is expected in the European Parliament, and a new president may be in the White House.
HUNGARY. Magyar in the middle
Budapest gives in on NATO but retains a spoiler role.
Hungary's parliament approved Sweden's accession to NATO on Monday. It also voted in a new president. Sweden last week agreed to sell Hungary four new Gripen jets. Budapest held talks in Tehran and with Chinese carmaker BYD.
INTELLIGENCE. Having both secured a variation of Turkey’s jets-for-votes deal for Sweden’s NATO membership, and secured the appointment of a new ally as president, Viktor Orban likely feels he can return to his usual brinksmanship with Brussels. His foreign minister’s visit to Tehran was the latest provocation (and comes up sharply against Hungary’s earlier veto of an EU statement on Gaza), but the meeting with BYD may be the real stick in the EU’s craw.
FOR BUSINESS. Though out of step with the EU politically, Hungary has been rewarded by European firms, attracted by its lower costs, cheaper (Russian) energy, and looser regulations. It has likewise attracted China’s biggest EV manufacturer, and several large battery firms, just as European carmakers lobby for higher tariffs and anti-dumping measures. As with its foreign policies, Budapest’s economic plans could increase tensions with its neighbours.
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UNITED STATES. Three-body problem
The separation of powers continues to frustrate the White House.
The Supreme Court heard arguments on free speech Monday as a decision was delayed on presidential immunity. The White House said it would summon congressional leaders Tuesday amid GOP calls to cancel the State of the Union.
INTELLIGENCE. A delay on Donald Trump’s immunity case buys the Republican candidate time as ‘Super Tuesday’ approaches. A delay on emergency funding ahead of another potential government shutdown avoids the House having to consider contentious spending Trump opposes (Ukraine) and would deprive the Republicans of a potent political weapon (the border). Following his defeat of Nikki Haley in South Carolina, Trump will hope his luck holds.
FOR BUSINESS. Gridlock is a constitutional feature, not a bug, but amid waning strategic influence and an uncertain economic outlook, now is not a good time for stalemate, let alone Joe Biden.Biden will hope a recent IVF ruling in Alabama could help push the narrative in his favour, but Trump has also anticipated the backlash and positioned against the decision to treat embryos as people. It seems to have otherwise cost Haley votes in her home state.
CHINA. THE PACIFIC. Red on blue
Strategic competition heats up in Micronesia.
Washington warned Pacific states Monday against accepting Beijing's assistance after reports that uniformed Chinese officers were doing police work in Kiribati. The US Coast Guard said it had boarded Chinese boats near the atoll nation.
INTELLIGENCE. US patrols are in place for Pacific states otherwise unable to protect their vast exclusive economic zones. But reports of uniformed Chinese police working with local officers could prove awkward should one of these seconded officials be asked to represent Kiribati on US ships. Sino-US rivalry in the Pacific reached new levels elsewhere this month when Palau warned Congress it could fall to China should new spending not be agreed.
FOR BUSINESS. Unlike Kiribati, which now (once again) recognises Beijing diplomatically, Palau, Marshall Islands and Tuvalu are still aligned with Taipei. Tuvalu could be next to flip. It appointed a new prime minister on Monday and while Taiwan’s ambassador has spoken of “everlasting” ties, nothing permanent exists in diplomacy. Elsewhere, political instability in Tonga, Fiji, Vanuatu, and Papua New Guinea continues to complicate the West’s regional sway.