Israel, Palestine: Sinwar qua non

Also: Ukraine, Russia, China, India, the UK, the US, and Canada.

Muhammad and Gabriel see the sinners and demons in Hell from the Miraj Nameh, unknown, c1436, supplément turc 190, Bibliothèque nationale de France, Paris.

In today’s dispatch:

• ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Hamas’s future and the war’s purpose are placed in doubt.

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Zelensky outlines the alternative to NATO membership.

• CHINA. BRITAIN. London seeks to reset a difficult relationship.

• INDIA. UNITED STATES. An Indian official is charged with attempted murder.

• CANADA. The Prime Minister is a burden on the Liberals, but not the only one.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily client briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, a specialist advisory firm helping companies map, monitor and manage geopolitical risk.

ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Sinwar qua non

Hamas’s future and the war’s purpose are placed in doubt.

Israel released footage Thursday of Hamas chief Yayah Sinwar being killed in a Rafah apartment block. Joe Biden said it was a “good day” but called on Israel to end the war. Benjamin Netanyahu said it was “the beginning of the end”.

INTELLIGENCE. Missing an arm, covered in dust, and throwing a stick, Sinwar cut a sorry figure, but few will miss him. Hamas is virtually wiped out. Its remaining hostages, if any are still alive, will return to Israeli focus irrespective of what happens in Lebanon or Iran. Netanyahu knows this and, with his best polling in over a year, will be compelled to end things soon and call an election. The question is whether Hezbollah and other foes want to call it quits as well.

FOR BUSINESS. Hezbollah, bereft of leaders too, reacted to Sinwar's death with a vow of escalation. It's unlikely to have the means, even if it has the will, though reports of Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout in the region may suggest an influx of new weapons to come. There is also the question of Israel’s promised retaliation to Iran’s strikes of two weeks ago. Both gold and oil were slightly higher on the news. Iran-backed militants in Iraq attacked Israeli targets.

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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Nuclear options

Zelensky outlines the alternative to NATO membership.

Volodymyr Zelensky told European leaders Ukraine had a choice between joining NATO and seeking nuclear weapons. In a press conference with NATO's Secretary-General, he later clarified that Ukraine was not seeking nuclear weapons.

INTELLIGENCE. If Kyiv was serious about a nuclear capability, it would not be broadcasting its intentions to the world. And while it is