Israel, Palestine: So near, so far
Also: Egypt, Tunisia, the Sahel, Guyana, and Venezuela.
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ISRAEL. PALESTINE. So near, so far
As ceasefire hopes stall, Washington side-steps Netanyahu.
Opposition figure Benny Gantz travelled to Washington Sunday to meet Kamala Harris and White House adviser Jake Sullivan. Harris called for an "immediate ceasefire" to the "inhumane" conflict, in Washington's strongest rebuke to date.
INTELLIGENCE. As Gantz visits the US, Israeli officials have boycotted ceasefire talks in Egypt, due to Hamas failing to provide a list of hostages. The White House held out hopes Saturday for a ceasefire ahead of Ramadan, on 10 March, but both sides are now digging in following the deaths of over 100 Gazans in an aid delivery Thursday. The US has begun deliveries of its own, airdropping food into Gaza, following similar efforts by Jordan, Egypt and others.
FOR BUSINESS. In the wake of Michigan’s primary and amid a worsening humanitarian disaster, Joe Biden is losing patience with Benjamin Netanyahu. By hosting Gantz – a member of his war cabinet but a political rival – the US is signalling a desire to circumvent the Israeli right. This could allow Republicans a new front against Biden, particularly as AIPAC begins a major advertising spend, but more Americans are also tiring of the war, according to recent polls.
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EGYPT. Beachfront bargains
The UAE and Saudi Arabia eye prime strips of coastline.
Egypt's foreign minister on Sunday stressed the importance of Cairo's links to the Gulf. Egypt last week announced the UAE had deposited $10 billion for a project near Alexandria and set off speculation about a Saudi project in the Sinai.
INTELLIGENCE. The UAE plans to invest $24 billion in Ras al-Hekma, a megaproject on the Mediterranean, and a further $11 billion in other developments. No figure has been given for Ras Gamila, near Sharm el-Sheikh, but it sits across the Straits of Tiran from two islands Egypt turned over to Saudi Arabia in 2017 and near the site of a planned bridge to Riyadh's $500 billion NEOM project. The IMF is expected to announce a new loan to Egypt this month.
FOR BUSINESS. Egypt is broke and surrounded by warzones. Cairo has frequently turned to the Gulf for hard currency but this time the bailouts may come with more strings than usual. By investing in land, rather than the Egyptian treasury, the door is ajar for future military bases. No such plans have been announced (nor would they), but the UAE at least is speculated to have pursued similar deals in Libya and Kenya, with which it last month signed a trade deal.
TUNISIA. Spring fever
Tensions rise as the seasons change.
Thousands protested outside Tunisian government offices on Saturday over a crackdown on NGOs. Drinking water prices were raised 16% on Friday. Former president Moncef Marzouki was sentenced in absentia to eight years' jail.
INTELLIGENCE. Tunisia saw the first protests of the Arab Spring. As today, unrest was fomented by rising prices, but current president Kais Saied, who has ruled by diktat since 2021, is keeping a close eye on the opposition. In addition to Marzouki's sentence, opposition figure Jaouhar Ben Mbarek was last month sentenced to six months' prison. Another prominent politician was given a three-year sentence in January. He began a hunger strike two weeks ago.
FOR BUSINESS. Like several countries in North Africa, Tunisia is in drought and increasingly dependent on the Gulf and the IMF. Testy ties with Europe have complicated a migration deal. Forex reserves are low. And while medical and seaside tourism is booming, memories of 2015’s terrorist attacks came to the fore last week when a historic synagogue in Sfax was set on fire. In May last year, a shooting at a synagogue in Djerba killed five and injured ten.
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THE SAHEL. Paved with bad intentions
After kicking out the West, security only worsens.
Around 170 villagers had been executed in attacks over the past week, Burkinabe officials said Sunday. Last week, 15 were killed by jihadists during a Catholic mass in Burkina Faso's north. A similar number were killed in a mosque attack.
INTELLIGENCE. The military government of Burkina Faso, like its fellow juntas in Mali and Niger, has largely broken off ties with the West, opting for closer links to Russia. The move was partly due to the West’s perceived failure to stem Islamist terrorism and local insurgencies. Yet as violence worsens, it will become increasingly difficult to blame Paris, Washington, or the UN. The Sahel is now considered to be the locus of Islamic State’s global operations.
FOR BUSINESS. Just as Moscow's security assistance to the region faces a steep and uncertain path, Beijing's promised investments may prove illusory. In Niger, which last month missed a key bond repayment, China could overtake France as top investor, but its interests are concentrated in oil and uranium, which require secure transport routes. China has committed to fund hydro, solar and gold projects in Mali, but these also need guarantees of safety.
GUYANA. VENEZUELA. Push and pull
Maduro keeps escalating below a certain threshold.
Nicolas Maduro promised his Brazilian counterpart Friday that Venezuela would hold elections after June. Maduro exchanged gifts with Guyana's president. The ICC said a probe into Venezuelan human rights abuses could proceed.
INTELLIGENCE. Maduro was in Saint Vincent for a regional summit. As Venezuela’s economy recovers from US sanctions relief, he has been careful to balance the need to avoid a snapback with the need to stay in power (and avoid penalty for his regime’s crimes). Part of that equation has been to threaten then unthreaten to invade Guyana, with which Venezuela has a territorial dispute, and to neutralise any dissidents in a clear but plausibly deniable way.
FOR BUSINESS.Venezuela's oil exports rose in February to 670,000 barrels per day, partly thanks to Chevron, which remains bullish on the region's prospects despite the political risks. Exxon has also remained bullish, last week threatening to nix Chevron's $53 billion takeover of Hess, which operates in Guyana, by exercising a right of refusal. Yet as with Maduro, this is high stakes poker, particularly if the avowedly anti-regime Donald Trump comes to power.