Israel, Palestine: The endgame is nigh

Also: the EU, the Philippines, China, Venezuela, and Panama.

The Celestial City and the River of Bliss, John Martin, 1841, oil on canvas, private collection.

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ISRAEL. PALESTINE. The endgame is nigh

Pieces fall into place for the ‘day after’.

The IDF, running low on munitions, wants a truce, the New York Times said Tuesday. Benjamin Netanyahu is privately open to a post-war role for Ramallah, the Times of Israel said. Malaysia said it would send peacekeepers if asked.

INTELLIGENCE. Netanyahu won’t end the war without a sense of Hamas’s defeat or his political survival. Yet both could be in view as what may be a final assault starts in Khan Younis and signals are sent for a multinational monitor force, which Muslim-majority countries as far away as Indonesia and Malaysia could join. And judicial moves on Haredi enlistment may allow him to quietly shift alignment from his difficult coalition allies back to the centre-right.

FOR BUSINESS. Gaza’s tribulations have reportedly boosted local support for Hamas, and the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah is seen as corrupt, but the presence of foreign troops, and Gulf money, could stabilise the situation – assuming war doesn’t break out with Hezbollah in the meantime. And while the timeline for peace may run beyond the US election, the next administration could claim the credit. As could Netanyahu, under a different political bloc.

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EUROPE. Last Vestagers

Recent antitrust moves suggest the end of an era.

The EU charged Meta with failing to comply with antitrust rules days after competition tsar Margrethe Vestager accused Apple of anticompetitive behaviour. France's National Rally (RN) could join a new EU parliament bloc, Bloomberg said.

INTELLIGENCE. Vestager has been a bête noir of US tech since her term began in 2014. Silicon Valley lawyers will continue to contest Brussels’ charges. But hope of a different approach could be in sight if