Israel, Palestine: Tragedy in Gaza
Also: Iran, Ukraine, Russia, India, and Senegal.
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ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Tragedy in Gaza
Ceasefire talks will be irredeemably harmed by events in Gaza City.
Gazan authorities said 100 had been shot dead during an aid delivery Thursday. Israel blamed a stampede. Far-right parties won a majority of seats in Jerusalem's local elections. Israel appropriated 650 acres of West Bank territory.
INTELLIGENCE. The Hamas-linked Gazan health service says 30,000 civilians have perished – a claim given credence by the Pentagon this week – but Israel estimates a lower number. Irrespective of the exact figure, and indeed what caused the deaths at a Gaza food delivery, anger is running white-hot ahead of Ramadan and it is now even harder to see Hamas acceding to Israel’s demands. Hamas on Wednesday called for a barricade at the al-Aqsa Mosque.
FOR BUSINESS. Eyes have been on Gaza, but the West Bank could see greater tensions in the coming weeks, including from Jewish settlers, whose supporters have triumphed in local elections. A related flashpoint is brewing over the conscription of Haredi Jews, on which ultra-Orthodox parties have threatened to bring down the government. And while that may be attractive for many, the turmoil would only aggravate a tenuous security and economic picture.
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IRAN. The hard sell
Regime hardliners eye an election win.
Voting began Friday in Iran's 12th parliamentary election. Despite a record number of female candidates, reformists urged voters to stay away. Tehran has approved a Hezbollah escalation, Lebanese media reported Wednesday.
INTELLIGENCE. Few expect the polls – to be coupled with a vote on the more powerful Assembly of Experts, which will elect the next Supreme Leader – will be free or fair. But turnout could give clues on support for the regime, which is otherwise facing dissent over its costly funding of Middle Eastern proxies. The hardliners will hope other markers of Iranian power prove more popular. Russia helped Iran launch a domestically made research satellite on Thursday.
FOR BUSINESS. Tehran’s projection of anti-Western defiance will increase after the vote, and in the wake of events in Gaza. Yet it will unlikely want to create a new front in Lebanon, which would only complicate its separate efforts to revive its economy through oil sales to India and a gas pipeline to Pakistan – things the West will likely have a greater ability to quash than the region’s energy imports from Russia. Iran was placed under new US sanctions on Tuesday.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Saying the quiet part out loud
No surprises, only shock.
Vladimir Putin warned Thursday of nuclear war if NATO deployed troops to Ukraine. Westminster's Foreign Affairs Committee slammed Olaf Scholz after the German chancellor implied British and French troops were already in Ukraine.
INTELLIGENCE. Scholz’s remarks about European missile crews were clumsy but unsurprising. Ukrainian and Russian analysts have long reported their presence. Paris called in Russia’s ambassador after Moscow bombed a Kharkiv hostel housing French “fighters” last month. Putin’s remarks, made in an annual address, repeated previous warnings but came with an additional shock value after weeks of warnings from across NATO of direct confrontation.
FOR BUSINESS. A direct NATO-Russia war is unlikely. The results would not only devastate both sides, but Moscow does not need to escalate to achieve what could be regarded as an acceptable victory. At present rates, Russia could foreseeably reach Kiev in the next three months. And while the war has been marked by unpredictability, many locals appear to agree. Real estate fire sales in Ukraine’s east have reportedly spiked. Young men continue to flee the draft.
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INDIA. The fast and the furious
Nothing can hurt the Modi miracle, except some very angry farmers.
India's economy grew by a surprise 8.4% in the December quarter, data showed Thursday. Delhi approved $15 billion in semiconductor projects. Bill Gates, Ivanka Trump and Mark Zuckerberg headed to a pre-wedding party in Gujarat.
INTELLIGENCE. The party, for Mukesh Ambani’s youngest son, will be held inside a giant garden inside a giant oil refinery and epitomises everything about India’s rise. Key to that rise has been Narendra Modi, who is all but certain to win in India’s general elections, which begin next month. But not everyone is pleased. While the opposition is in disarray (partly due to government heavy-handedness), mass farmer protests are gathering pace to Delhi’s north.
FOR BUSINESS. While down from 80% in 1951, two-thirds of Indians live beyond the cities and form the biggest voting bloc. Internet blackouts may be a way to stop the protests spreading beyond Punjab and Haryana. Suggestions that link them to Pakistan and Sikh secessionism may also be designed to limit their appeal to the Hindu majority. Either way, Delhi will likely cave to most farmer demands. This will give Modi political space but at the cost of rural reform.
SENEGAL. Mack-down
Macky Sall reverses an authoritarian turn (for now).
Senegal's president reiterated Thursday he would step down in April ahead of new elections. Dakar approved a political amnesty law Wednesday to quell weeks of protests. At least 24 died when a migrant boat capsized off Senegal's north.
INTELLIGENCE. Elections were due to be held last month before being cancelled. The move was rescinded by constitutional authorities in a sign Senegal’s institutions still work. But many doubt Sall is ready to go. Security challenges, including terrorism, could yet provide another excuse for delay. Many young Senegalese are, meanwhile, departing for Europe. West African migrant arrivals in Spain's Canary Islands are up almost 1,300% year-on-year.
FOR BUSINESS. Stability in Senegal was, until recently, taken for granted by Western capitals and investors. Senegal’s security partners, in particular, will hope it remains, especially after another regional ally, Chad, was rocked by political warfare on Wednesday. Senegal's economy had been expected to grow 8.3% this year, but further unrest could imperil this, as could calls to end the CFA franc, which has been a rising debate since a series of coups in the Sahel.