Israel, Palestine: Treacherous dealings
Also: Ukraine, Russia, Sao Tome, Chad, and Myanmar.
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ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Treacherous dealings
Both sides claim bad faith on the eve of Rafah.
Hamas agreed to a ceasefire proposal put forward by Qatar and Egypt on Monday, which Israel rejected as insufficient. An Israeli delegation visited Cairo Tuesday to resume negotiations as IDF ground troops prepared to cross into Rafah.
INTELLIGENCE. Israel urged civilians to evacuate the city, which houses Hamas’s last battalions and 1.4 million refugees. Air attacks have increased. Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet has unanimously agreed to proceed with the long-planned assault. This is unlikely to be purely negotiating tactics to extract a better deal, though many in the region, Western protest encampments, and hostage families seem to think it is. The period of talking has likely closed.
FOR BUSINESS. As both sides accuse each other of treachery the chances of a ceasefire look slim. The chances of escalation, particularly along the Lebanese border, look greater, though Iran is unlikely to participate directly following April’s tit-for-tat. And though an assault on Rafah could hasten the war’s conclusion, it will likely prolong the economic consequences. Israeli media has already warned that Turkish trade embargoes could see food prices rise 18-24%.
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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Taking the fifth
Putin starts a new term with some pointed messages.
Vladimir Putin was sworn into a fifth six-year term Tuesday. After attending an Orthodox Easter mass Sunday and ordering tactical nuclear weapons drills Monday, Putin is expected to announce a customary government reshuffle.
INTELLIGENCE. Besides warnings to the West following suggestions Britain would allow its weapons to target Russia and France would send in troops (there are credible claims the Foreign Legion is already in Donetsk), Putin’s post-inauguration signals will largely be domestic. Several younger officials are expected to be appointed to the cabinet, particularly after the arrest of Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov. Like Putin, 71, most ministers are getting old.
FOR BUSINESS. The appointments may hold clues to who will follow Putin. Currently, there is no clear succession plan. Putin has spoken about creating a new elite of Ukraine war veterans, but for now the oligarchs and ex-KGB siloviki remain in control. Speculation is also mounting about Volodymyr Zelensky’s future. Russia has put out an arrest warrant, indicating it won’t negotiate with him when the time comes. His term technically expires this month.
SAO TOME & PRINCIPE. RUSSIA. Sunny place, shady deal
Moscow eyes a foothold in the Gulf of Guinea.
Russia and the African island country of Sao Tome & Principe signed an open-ended military cooperation agreement, Sputnik news said Monday. Sao Tome last week said it would ask former colonial power Portugal to pay reparations.
INTELLIGENCE. Sao Tome is relatively free and prosperous though its tiny economy lacks diversity and is vulnerable to shock. A deal with Russia is out of character. Sao Tome is historically close to Portugal, which conducts anti-piracy operations in the region. Until 2016, it was an ally of Taiwan. In 2002, a deal was announced with the US Navy to construct a base (the Pentagon then lost interest). Sao Tome is strategically located in the oil-rich waters off Nigeria.
FOR BUSINESS. The news follows reports in February that Beijing was seeking to establish a base in nearby Gabon (Washington scuppered its plans for one in Equatorial Guinea in 2021). Either of these developments would present a headache for the US and France, which have been in talks over new locations in Ghana, Ivory Coast and Benin, among others, following coups in Gabon and the Sahel. Russia is said to be also looking at port access in Senegal.
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CHAD. Roulette
A game with only one winner.
Chad held a long-delayed election Monday, with interim president Mahamat Deby Itno almost guaranteed to win. Deby Itno took power after his father was killed in 2021. His cousin and opposition leader, Yaya Dillo, was killed in February.
INTELLIGENCE. Results, to give a veneer of legitimacy, will be announced 21 May. In the meantime, almost nobody expects the Deby family’s 30-plus year rule to end. The only real competitor, Succès Masra, was Deby Itno's prime minister. Still, a technical return to civilian rule will help the US and France justify further investment in Chad, the only Sahelian state still hosting Western troops (the US was kicked out of Niger; Russian forces have arrived at its base).
FOR BUSINESS. Chad will likely continue to host Western bases, which host counter-terrorism operations in the restive region, but it is actively courting Russia and China. Deby Itno visited Putin in January. Chad's airforce chief threatened to cancel the US's status of forces agreement in April. Still, this may all just be a bargaining ploy, including for Western capitals to look the other way as Chad supports rebel logistics for Sudan’s civil war across the border.
MYANMAR. Rakhine and ruin
Rebels get closer to controlling the northwest coast.
Some 200 troops surrendered at their command headquarters in Rakhine State, a local militia said Monday. The Arakan Army, which has fought Myanmar’s junta since a ceasefire ended November, has captured nine towns across the state.
INTELLIGENCE. The fall of the Buthidaung HQ is the Tatmadaw’s latest defeat in the two-year civil war. Having dominated Myanmar since independence in 1948, it now seems plausible it will need grant recognition, not just de facto control, to the ethnic militias that increasingly run Myanmar’s border regions. In the case of Rakhine, next to Bangladesh and along the coast, this may also mean giving up control of important Chinese port and energy facilities.
FOR BUSINESS. The port of Kyaukphyu, 200km south of Buthidaung, is part of China's Belt and Road network and hosts a rail link and energy pipelines to Kunming that bypasses the Malacca Strait. Beijing last week sent 300 technicians to work on expanding the port, Radio Free Asia said, but is thought to be worried about its viability as Arakan soldiers move south. China is thought to have once supplied the militia with arms but is by no means an ally.