Israel, Palestine: Tug of Sinwar

Also: Russia, China, Britain, Mexico, and Peru.

Where To? Ismail Shammout, 1953, oil on canvas, private collection, Amman, Jordan.

In today’s dispatch:

• ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Hamas may soon be readying for surrender.

• RUSSIA. CHINA. Moscow warns it could “combine potential” with Beijing.

• BRITAIN. A winter fuel revolt and flat economy add to Starmer’s woes.

• MEXICO. The Senate passes a contentious reform, thanks to a missing lawmaker.

• PERU. Alberto Fujimori’s death won’t heal a divided country.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.

ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Tug of Sinwar

Hamas may soon be readying for surrender.

Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar made his first public statement Wednesday since the October massacre: a congratulatory message to Algeria's re-elected president. Israel proposed the Sinwar's safe passage in return for remaining hostages.

INTELLIGENCE. Among Wednesday’s unusual messages was an intercepted letter Defence Minister Yoav Gallant read from a senior Hamas commander to Sinwar, alleging the 95% loss of rockets and 75% loss of men. Coupled with Israel’s unusually generous offer to Sinwar, and recent hints Hamas would no longer make new demands, it seems a ceasefire may finally be agreed – because it is a surrender, almost certain to be entirely on Israel’s terms.

FOR BUSINESS. If the smoke signals are correct, peace of a sort may be almost at hand. Washington will naturally claim credit, though it’s unlikely US pressure made much of a difference. The bitter truth, for all sides, is that violence wins wars, not diplomacy. And while diplomacy can win peace, the mutual mistrust is now so great that true stability in Gaza is still years away. Reconstruction and reconciliation will require billions, plus the support of multiple states.

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RUSSIA. CHINA. Powers combined

Moscow warns it could “combine potential” with Beijing.

Russia would "combine potential" with China if it faced a threat from the US, a Kremlin spokeswoman said Wednesday. A senior State Department official for the first time directly accused Beijing of helping Moscow's "war machine".

INTELLIGENCE. As the US rattles sabres on long-range missiles, and Russia hits backs on accusations it is procuring the same from Iran, both