Israel, the US: Bibi in the bonnet
Also: Ukraine, Haiti, France, Germany, Poland, and Yemen.
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ISRAEL. UNITED STATES. Bibi in the bonnet
Washington wants Netanyahu to go. Sort of.
Majority Leader Chuck Schumer called on Israel to hold elections, as Benjamin Netanyahu “no longer fits the needs of Israel”, which “cannot survive if it becomes a pariah”. Israel hit back at US attempts to “overthrow” the government.
INTELLIGENCE. It's possible a new election could give space for a moderate like Benny Gantz to find a face-saving off-ramp that provides for Israel's security and a path to Palestinian statehood. But just as likely, US threats and an early election could breathe life into Netanyahu's beleaguered premiership. Though disliked and blamed for the crisis, Netanyahu can now claim to be the only leader willing to stand up for Israel, irrespective of foreign condemnation.
FOR BUSINESS. Despite years of controversy, Netanyahu remained in power by casting himself as Israel’s toughest advocate. Washington’s comments thus come as a gift on the eve of a possible Rafah ground assault. This begs the question then of whether Washington’s demands are genuine, or an attempt to placate progressive swing state voters, many of whom are at risk of otherwise boycotting the election and giving Donald Trump an easy victory.
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UKRAINE. UNITED STATES. Kievan ruse
Mike Johnson hints at an aid package. Don’t hold your breath.
House Speaker Mike Johnson told Politico Thursday he anticipated using the suspension calendar to pass a Ukraine bill with Democrat votes. Johnson told senators Wednesday the bill could be in the form of a loan or lend-lease program.
INTELLIGENCE. After months of pressure, moderates, the White House, and the Senate want Johnson to move on a Ukraine funding package, but there are signs he plans for the bill to fail. First, he wants to pass government funding foremost, which will chew up time. Second, he wants to use Congress’s suspension procedure, which requires a two-thirds majority. Third, he wants the package to be in the form of a loan, which the Democrats will likely oppose.
FOR BUSINESS. Johnson can’t afford to antagonise hardliners, including Donald Trump, who either insist on a border quid pro quo or oppose further aid outright. As with the border, he wants to push the blame for Ukraine back onto the administration and the Senate. And Democrats will be hard-pressed to call his bluff, with their own progressive wing unlikely to agree to a lend-lease style program for Ukraine, let alone Republican demands on border security.
HAITI. Beyond the border
The neighbourhood turns from indifference to panic.
Florida’s governor mobilised 250 state troops amid "the possibility of invasion" by Haitian migrants. Britain announced additional security support for its Turks and Caicos territory. Canada and the UN followed the US in evacuating staff.
INTELLIGENCE. The resignation of Haiti’s prime minister and the announcement of a transitional council have been met with derision by the gangs that now control Port-au-Prince. The city's largest prison has been set on fire and a Kenyan-led police deployment seems no closer to reality. As expats flee, the US is preparing a migrant facility at Guantanamo Bay. Videos of cannibalism in the streets are fake but fears of a humanitarian disaster are real.
FOR BUSINESS. Royal Caribbean has cancelled stops at Lebadee in Haiti’s north. Flights are suspended and a curfew is in place. Neighbouring Dominican Republic has closed the border, and the US Coast Guard has sent back 65 migrants found off the Bahamas. It will not be long before Haiti’s security crisis becomes a US political crisis. Washington’s decisions around the inevitable arrival of the first boats will determine how much of a crisis it becomes.
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FRANCE. GERMANY. POLAND. Weimar’s republics
New groupings form in NATO’s shadow.
France's Emmanuel Macron and Poland's Donald Tusk met Olaf Scholz in Germany Friday for talks on Ukraine and the first meeting of the 'Weimar Triangle'. Macron said Thursday Europe's credibility would be "zero" if Russia won the war.
INTELLIGENCE. Though held in Berlin, the summit appears to be driven by Warsaw and Paris, which have been more forceful on Ukraine, albeit in ways that have come to bother allies and voters. Tensions have been most marked between Macron and Scholz, which makes Weimar an unlikely coalition of the willing, but it is seen as an emerging security alternative due to worries about a Trump presidency and wider disagreements within NATO and the EU.
FOR BUSINESS. Formats like Weimar, sometimes including Kyiv, have been regularly proposed 1991. With the US seen as too unpredictable, the UK as too Atlanticist, and NATO members like Turkey and Hungary unreliable, the concept makes sense. But as outgoing NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg has pointed out, Europe needs to focus on ammunition, not strategy. The EU last week proposed shifting the European arms industry into "war economy mode".
YEMEN. Hypertension
The Houthis don’t need hypersonics to raise the pressure.
Russian media Thursday said Yemen's Houthis had successfully tested a hypersonic missile. The group's leader said ships navigating the Cape of Good Hope would now be in reach. The US said it had destroyed several drone systems.
INTELLIGENCE. Even if the Houthis did possess a hypersonic capability – which the US is still developing but Iran claims to have achieved – they would presumably not waste it on ships around South Africa when their ostensible target, Israel, is so much closer. Either way, the seriousness with which many are reporting the unconfirmed claims demonstrate the Houthis’ technical sophistication, despite Yemen’s broken economy and Iran’s uncertain support.
FOR BUSINESS. The claims follow reports in the Financial Times of US-Iranian talks to de-escalate the crisis in the Red Sea. They also follow warnings from the UN that the ongoing attacks, and Western retaliation, risk plunging Yemen back into civil war.A political process was supposed to commence by the start of Ramadan. And while such a process cannot be ruled out entirely, the Houthis' continuing escalation suggests they aren’t preparing for peace.