Israel, the US: Biting the hand
Also: Russia, North Korea, the Philippines, Burkina Faso, and the Caucasus.
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ISRAEL. UNITED STATES. Biting the hand
The rift widens between Biden and Netanyahu.
A senior US-Israel meeting on Iran has allegedly been cancelled for Thursday after the White House hit back at Benjamin Netanyahu's claims it was withholding military support. A row between Netanyahu and his coalition partners continued.
INTELLIGENCE. Netanyahu is stuck between Israel’s main ally, which disagrees with his approach on Gaza, the largely secular IDF, whose talking points have begun to differ, and his far-right coalition partners, who want him to go further on Hamas and a range of other issues. For now, US aid will continue – and a public rift with Biden could be good for both leaders as an appeal to their base – but lingering question over US support will ultimately harm Israel’s security.
FOR BUSINESS. Should the US curtail aid to Israel, the White House risks not only losing mainstream opinion (popular support for Israel far outweighs that for Palestine, despite the latter’s vocal advocates) but the already eroded trust of other allies, many of whom – particularly in the Gulf – conduct foreign policy the US abhors. Israel for now has few other alternative defence partners, but states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have plenty of friends to choose from.
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RUSSIA. NORTH KOREA. Feeding the hermit
Putin signs a mutual defence pact.
Vladimir Putin and Kim Kong Un signed a defence agreement Wednesday, which would oblige each to "use all available means to provide military and other assistance" if "either side faces an armed invasion and is in a state of war.”
INTELLIGENCE. Putin's visit to Pyongyang was already going to provoke Washington and Beijing, but neither would have likely expected a mutual aid pact. It's possible the agreement's fine print will provide exemptions so as to curtail North Korea's worst instincts. And it's possible that some of this may have been deconflicted with China. But either way, it puts a nail in the coffin of UN Security Council sanctions on the North, as well as its nuclear pariah status.
FOR BUSINESS. Besides negative implications for nuclear non-proliferation, the deal could also short-circuit any future rapprochement between Russia, South Korea and Japan, which are otherwise major importers of LNG and other goods Russia would normally be well-equipped to supply. This underscores the continuing opportunity for rival exporters, like Australia, the US, and Qatar, as well as the vulnerability of long-term contracts to geopolitical change.
THE PHILIPPINES. Dishing the Dutertes
Marcos’s biggest challenge is domestic.
Vice President Sara Duterte resigned as education minister and vice chair of an anti-insurgency taskforce Wednesday, a move seen as a further deterioration of her relationship with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, as well as their families.
INTELLIGENCE. No reason was given for the resignation, but ties between the Duterte and Marcos clans have been deteriorating for months and there is a view that Manila’s counter-insurgency efforts in the south, where the Dutertes are from, have failed. The city of Lamitan on the island of Basilan, declared itself free of the Abu Sayyaf militant group on Tuesday. Hours later, a bomb exploded. Marcos is otherwise said to be preoccupied with the South China Sea.
FOR BUSINESS. Marcos, who is from the Taiwan-facing north, and whose father was a staunch US Cold War ally, has come under criticism from many in Manila’s business community for jeopardising ties with Beijing over largely symbolic claims to uninhabited atolls in the South China Sea. Duterte’s father, Rodrigo, the previous president, was a proponent of Chinese appeasement. Sara’s resignation will allow the family to openly renew their political campaign.
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BURKINA FASO. Coup too
The junta may be fracturing, again.
Junta leader Ibrahim Traore was in hiding, French newspaper Le Monde said Wednesday, as military factions debated whether to depose him. Burkina suspended French station TV5's licence Tuesday, after earlier banning Le Monde.
INTELLIGENCE. Burkina claims the reports are disinformation, but Traore has already faced off one coup attempt – in September 2023 – and himself came to power by deposing another military leader in September 2022. His predecessor, Colonel Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba, came to power in a coup that January. Russian forces have begun to arrive, ostensibly to prop-up Traore, who in May delayed a deadline for elections by another five years.
FOR BUSINESS. Intrigues in Burkina would not normally make the news if it weren't for a power vacuum in the Sahel that Russia, and to a lesser extent Turkey, Iran, and China, are seeking to fill. The region's previous security guarantors, the US and France, have relocated troops to Chad and the West African coast, but political changes there have put a cloud over those bases too. Senegal is examining whether to evict France. Mauritania holds elections next week.
THE CAUCASUS. CAESAR salad
France disrupts a peace process. Turkey steps in.
Azerbaijan called the sale of French CAESAR howitzers to Armenia "illegitimate" Wednesday amid attempts to finalise a peace deal between the neighbours. Turkey's president held a rare phone call with Armenia's prime minister Tuesday.
INTELLIGENCE. Since the Soviet Union’s collapse, a border conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia had seemed as frozen, as had the array of states – Russia for Armenia, Turkey for Azerbaijan – willing to back each rival claim. Azerbaijan’s reclamation of ethnic-Armenian but Azeri-recognised territories last year however has upended this. Russia is now closer to Azerbaijan, with whom it is building trade corridors, while France has stepped in for Armenia.
FOR BUSINESS. Turkey’s potential rapprochement with Armenia would ease tensions on all sides but would also enrage Armenia’s ultra-nationalist opposition, who oppose peace with Azerbaijan (and are allegedly backed by the Kremlin). Russia is meanwhile eyeing restored ties with Georgia. Behind these moves are reoriented trade routes, revived by Western sanctions on Russia and Iran. After centuries, the Caucasus are back at the global crossroads.