Israel, the US: Out of both sides

Also: OPEC, Russia, China, Sudan, and Guinea.

Allegory of Falsehood (or Wisdom), Giovanni Bellini, 1490, oil on wood, Gallerie dell'Accademia, Venice.

In today’s dispatch:

• ISRAEL. UNITED STATES. Netanyahu confounds friend and foe alike.

• OPEC. RUSSIA. Eurasia’s key exporters jostle for oil’s future.

• CHINA. Washington’s rival is neither sinking nor collapsing.

• SUDAN. The army mounts a major strike while few are looking.

• GUINEA. Gunfire breaks out amid a political transition.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.

ISRAEL. UNITED STATES. Out of both sides

Netanyahu confounds friend and foe alike.

Benjamin Netanyahu said Friday Israel would "continue discussions" with the US on a ceasefire but walked back any agreement to halt attacks against Hezbollah, adding there had been "lots of misreporting" on the country's stance.

INTELLIGENCE. Netanyahu is said to have left the White House livid, but as in Gaza, where multiple ceasefires have been pursued then discarded, the US has only criticised, not constrained, his actions. Strategically, Netanyahu must walk both sides of conciliation and escalation to maintain his governing coalition, wrongfoot his enemies (foreign and domestic), and achieve his aims. Yet intentional or not, it’s beginning to look like he’s playing into US politics too.

FOR BUSINESS. Making the Biden Administration look gullible and weak might not be Netanyahu’s objective, but that’s how it’s being seen as he prepares to address the UN in New York. The timing of Thursday’s $8.7 billion military aid announcement doesn’t help, nor does speculation on Iran’s role in Donald Trump’s attempted assassination(s). As two chaotic systems – the US election cycle and Middle Eastern politics – collide, predictions will only get harder.

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OPEC. RUSSIA. Power play

Eurasia’s key exporters jostle for oil’s future.

Oil prices fell 3% Thursday after the Financial Times said Saudi Arabia would end its $100 per barrel target alongside OPEC+ members in December. Tehran outlined a plan to link the grids of Russia, the UAE and Saudi Arabia via Iran.

INTELLIGENCE. . Oil also fell after Libya's feuding governments agreed to a process for appointing a new central bank chief – a flash point that led to production cuts – which has