Israel, Yemen: Hou next?

Also: the US, Iran, Russia, Japan, China, and Austria.

Untitled, Augustus Lamplough, 1900, pencil and watercolour on card, private collection, London.

In today’s dispatch:

• ISRAEL. YEMEN. After Hamas and Hezbollah, Netanyahu eyes the Houthis.

• ISRAEL. UNITED STATES. Everyone loves a winner, at least on the surface.

• IRAN. RUSSIA. Moscow must decide if Tehran’s risks outweigh the rewards.

• JAPAN. CHINA. A new prime minister faces an old adversary.

• AUSTRIA. How Vienna handles the FPO could show how Berlin handles the AfD.

Geopolitical Dispatch is the daily intelligence and risk briefing of Geopolitical Strategy, an advisory firm specialising exclusively in geopolitical risk.

ISRAEL. YEMEN. Hou next?

After Hamas and Hezbollah, Netanyahu eyes the Houthis.

Dozens of Israeli jets bombed ports and infrastructure in Houthi-controlled Yemen Sunday after the Iran-backed militia attempted to attack Benjamin Netanyahu's plane as it returned from New York. Strikes on Lebanon killed at least 105.

INTELLIGENCE. After decapitating Hezbollah, and close to achieving its objectives in Gaza, Israel’s next target could be the Houthis’ semi-state in Yemen. The group poses less of an existential risk, but with Israel’s destruction enshrined in its charter, the Houthis have a target on their back. The Houthis’ removal would also unwind Iran’s regional power structure, with Syria now largely under Russia’s influence and Iraq increasingly aligned with Turkey.

FOR BUSINESS. If Netanyahu destroys the Houthis, he will have done something neither Saudi Arabia nor the US could. This suggests the task, if pursued, will difficult. But the same was thought of Hezbollah, which since the death of more than 300 US and French personnel in 1983 has ruled large parts of Lebanon with impunity. It will also be easier than going directly after Iran, though it could give Tehran cause to finally launch its threatened retaliation.

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ISRAEL. UNITED STATES. Honey to Bibi

Everyone loves a winner, at least on the surface.

Joe Biden said he would soon speak with Benjamin Netanyahu, after earlier calling the killing of Hezbollah's Hassan Nasrallah a "measure of justice". Centre-right opposition figure Gideon Sa'ar agreed to rejoin Netanyahu's cabinet.

INTELLIGENCE. Since launching his audacious attacks on Hezbollah, Netanyahu has gone from zero to hero in the eyes of many voters and leaders abroad. Even the weekly Hostages Forum protests have