Istanbul (not gonna happen)
Ukraine, Russia, Qatar, Iran, China, India, and South Africa.
The five things you need to know today:
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Putin slow-walks his own diplomatic initiative.
QATAR. Doha’s charm offensive hits turbulence.
IRAN. Tehran brings the region into talks with Washington.
CHINA. INDIA. Bilateral détente is shaken as US ties evolve.
SOUTH AFRICA. Ramaphosa decides to tackle Trump directly.
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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Byzantine strategy
Putin slow-walks his own diplomatic initiative.
Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky backed out of talks in Istanbul after the Kremlin said it would be represented by a deputy defence minister and a presidential aide to Vladimir Putin. Direct talks were officially last held in March 2022.
INTELLIGENCE. Few, least of all Zelensky, expected Putin to turn up, but Trump's vowed presence if he did made it a short-lived possibility. Putin is at pains to not irrevocably annoy Trump, who embodies Moscow's best hope of an accord with the West, but he doesn't want to prematurely end a war just as warmer temperatures are allowing for faster progress on the frontline. New sanctions, introduced by Europe Wednesday, are expected to have little impact.
FOR BUSINESS. By sending officials, Putin will hope to string along the talks as his spring offensive steps up. He will want to complete the capture of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia, plus ideally a bit more, before throwing in the towel. Offering up secondary oblasts, like Sumy, where a new assault has begun, may demonstrate Trump-pleasing munificence, for which sanctions relief, plus cooperation to resume energy exports, may be offered in return.
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QATAR. Out of the bag
Doha’s charm offensive hits turbulence.
Deals signed by Donald Trump and Qatar’s emir would "generate an economic exchange worth at least $1.2 trillion", the White House said Wednesday. Key Republicans in Congress panned a proposal for Qatar to gift Trump a luxury 747 jet.
INTELLIGENCE. Despite Boeing receiving a record order of 210 jets from Qatar Airways, most of the week’s focus