Istanbul, not Kostiantynivka
Ukraine, Russia, Israel, the US, Iran, China, Yemen, and the UK.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Putin tries to take things back to 2022.
ISRAEL. UNITED STATES. Trump and Netanyahu reconvene.
IRAN. CHINA. Tehran offers a Hormuz waiver for Beijing.
YEMEN. Fighting flares again, as does Red Sea risk.
BRITAIN. A new Reform scandal is a gift to Burnham.
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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Retro perspective
Putin tries to take things back to 2022.
Volodymyr Zelensky dared Vladimir Putin to meet him in Kostiantynivka after the two disputed the city’s fall and spoke to Donald Trump ahead of Turkey’s NATO summit. Moscow said it was open to talks, but only per the Istanbul framework.
INTELLIGENCE. It doesn’t really matter if Kostiantynivka has fallen. Irrespective of its problems with oil refining and Crimea, Russia is now much closer to its stated aims in Donetsk. This gives Putin a chance of convincing Trump to reprise his purported peacemaking role, particularly ahead of NATO (and ironically just as JD Vance is saying it’s Zelensky who holds the cards). Proposing the 2022 Istanbul Communiqué as a basis for talks is a deliberate strategy.
FOR BUSINESS. Ukraine is scoring real hits on Russian energy infrastructure, including in Moscow and St Petersburg. But while this may shape negotiations, it will not win the war. The Kremlin is likely to tough out the economic impact. Public opinion is tightly controlled. Ahead of NATO, Kyiv and Brussels will hope Trump focuses on the drone campaign, not Kostiantynivka, in deciding where to allocate US efforts, but this might require a quid pro quo on Iran.
ISRAEL. UNITED STATES. A sign of things to CENTCOM
Trump and Netanyahu reconvene.
Trump said he would meet Benjamin Netanyahu after NATO as Israel denied a New York Times report it had tried to kill Iran’s top negotiators. More US military assets arrived in the region as millions attended Ali Khamenei’s funeral in Tehran.
INTELLIGENCE. Netanyahu is in damage control as Trump prepares to meet with