It takes two to contango
Iran, Turkey, Italy, France, Venezuela, Peru, and Colombia.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Negotiating wobbles risk good news for oil supply.
TURKEY. A fighter jet deal sends shockwaves in Israel.
ITALY. FRANCE. Amid the heatwave, a diplomatic thaw.
VENEZUELA. An earthquake shakes the Trump-Delcy condominium.
PERU. COLOMBIA. Right-wing victories mask bitter divisions.
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IRAN. Dance of the seven veiled threats
Negotiating wobbles risk good news for oil supply.
Donald Trump said there would be no tolls on Hormuz and Iran would purchase food "exclusively" from the US after he emerged from a shouting match in the Senate. Marco Rubio vowed a $300 billion fund would not undermine Gulf security.
INTELLIGENCE. The truce holds, negotiations continue, and more ships are making it out of Hormuz. Brent crude has moved into contango, indicating expected oversupply. Yet Trump is under pressure from his party, Israel, and the Gulf on the terms of the deal. And Iran, while likely judging this is as good as it gets, may make good on threats to reclose the strait as the narrative keeps changing. Optimism is finely balanced, with Cushing stocks soon at tank bottoms.
FOR BUSINESS. Everything must continue to go right for Trump to get out of his self-made mess but, being his own worst enemy, self-sabotage can’t be ruled out. The dilemma is particularly acute as the Pentagon seeks an extra $80 billion in supplementary funding and Israel refuses to withdraw from Lebanon. Trump claims Iran is on the “ropes”, and he holds all the cards, yet it still holds him over a barrel (alongside Israel, the Gulf, the Senate, and the markets).
TURKEY. In the wings
A fighter jet deal sends shockwaves in Israel.
Tayyip Erdogan said he expected to hold talks with Trump at next month’s NATO summit. JD Vance said the US was reviewing if it could sell Turkey F-35s. Trump said “I’m going to probably do something that will make them very happy.”
INTELLIGENCE. Turkey, which is also seeking American engines for its indigenous