It’s not a lie if you believe it
The US, Ukraine, Russia, the EU, Mercosur, China, Taiwan, Israel, and Egypt.

Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
UNITED STATES. Trump delivers a pre-Christmas message.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. After Kyiv, it may be Moscow’s turn to be squeezed.
EUROPE. MERCOSUR. Macron and Meloni look a gift horse in the mouth.
CHINA. TAIWAN. A US arms sale will annoy but not deter Beijing.
ISRAEL. EGYPT. A $35 billion gas deal will bring money but not peace.
And don’t forget to connect with me on LinkedIn.
🎄Upgrade your subscription or give it as a gift to access all five daily briefings, five days a week, as relied on by leaders and investors across 160 countries.🎄
UNITED STATES. The airing of grievances
Trump delivers a pre-Christmas message.
Donald Trump listed his wins and frustrations in a national address Wednesday and announced a $1776 “dividend” to members of the military. GOP moderates joined House Democrats to force a vote on the Affordable Care Act next month.
INTELLIGENCE. Centrist voters are growing tired of Trump. Just 27% of independents now approve. Like struggling leaders elsewhere, cash handouts are coming into focus. Beyond the “warrior dividend”, Trump is proposing cheques for families set to lose their health insurance and who are suffering the inflationary effect of tariffs (never mind that much of the cause is higher import costs). More giveaways are promised in the form of lower interest rates next year.
FOR BUSINESS. Three in five Americans say the country is going in the wrong direction. The economy remains the chief concern, as it usually does. Few see a still-buoyant share market as an accurate reflection of their experience. Trump continues to bluster through. His team continue to float claims he is seeking a third term (citing alleged advice from Alan Dershowitz that it may be constitutional). But they know as well as he does that he’d lose by a landslide.
Geopolitical Dispatch is the client briefing of Geopolitical Strategy. Learn more about how we can help you to map, monitor and manage geopolitical risks.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Miami vise
After Kyiv, it may be Moscow’s turn to be squeezed.
The Senate passed a $901 billion defence bill, including $800 million for Ukraine and the Baltic. The US and Russia would meet again in Miami, Politico said. Fitch put Euroclear on downgrade watch over the potential seizure of Russian assets.
INTELLIGENCE. Vladimir Putin continues to talk tough. He said Russia would take


