Geopolitical Dispatch

Geopolitical Dispatch

Vance goes his own way on Iran

Iran, the US, Canada, the EU, the UK, and Spain.

Michael Feller's avatar
Michael Feller
Oct 29, 2026
∙ Paid
The Prophet Muhammad meets Isa (Jesus) in the Bayt al-Ma’mur, from the Nahj al-Faradis, Ali Al-Sar’i, c. 1466, paper, ink, gold, and opaque pigments, Al Thani Collection, Hôtel de la Marine, Paris.

Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

  • IRAN. Vance looks to steer the war from its drivers.

  • UNITED STATES. Trump sows doubt in a scorched-earth campaign.

  • CANADA. EUROPE. Carney’s plans rub against familiar terrain.

  • BRITAIN. Healey and Burnham postpone the fiscal reckoning.

  • SPAIN. A deadly train crash derails Sanchez’s campaign.


You’re reading one of today’s five analyses.
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IRAN. JD take the wheel

Vance looks to steer the war from its drivers.

Donald Trump said JD Vance was simply offering “help with medical supplies” after the Wall Street Journal said the vice president wrote to Iran’s security council. Reports circulated that the US and Israel would attack Iran on 4 November.

INTELLIGENCE. In the fog of competing narratives, it’s hard to discern the purpose, let alone the likely effects, of Vance’s letter. But Trump’s deputy has subtly been at odds with the rest of the administration on the war and, amid expressing similar differences on Israel, he may be trying to shape outcomes while his boss is distracted with the midterms and Benjamin Netanyahu is distracted with post-election coalition talks. That’s, at least, the region’s hope.

FOR BUSINESS. Different parts of Iran’s government are likewise communicating different messages, but that appears to be an intentional good-cop-bad-IRGC routine. Third-party mediators are pushing separate accounts too. Turkey’s Tayyip Erdogan spoke to Trump Wednesday to outline negotiating efforts by the Mecca Defence Alliance, following its visit to Tehran. Qatar put forward its own proposal Sunday, albeit which Iran immediately put doubt on.


UNITED STATES. Bombshell Alaska

Trump sows doubt in a scorched-earth campaign.

Trump accused the Democrats of perjury after the New York Times said the party had planned to split the vote for Alaska’s junior senator. Trump suggested Minnesota Governor Tim Walz deserved the electric chair for stealing money.

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