Geopolitical Dispatch

Geopolitical Dispatch

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Geopolitical Dispatch
Just a lotta baloney!
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Just a lotta baloney!

China, the US, Mexico, Colombia, the Philippines, the UK, and Ireland.

Michael Feller's avatar
Michael Feller
Jun 11, 2025
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Geopolitical Dispatch
Just a lotta baloney!
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No More Sausages, Rube Goldberg, Motion Picture News, 3 July 1926, New York.

The five things you need to know today:

  • CHINA. UNITED STATES. Washington and Beijing agree to disagree.

  • MEXICO. UNITED STATES. A compromise is sought in a charged environment.

  • COLOMBIA. The narco wars return.

  • THE PHILIPPINES. The vice president’s impeachment looks designed to fail.

  • BRITAIN. IRELAND. Migration continues to define the political mood.

Connect with me on LinkedIn and X (Twitter).

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CHINA. UNITED STATES. Framework in progress

Washington and Beijing agree to disagree.

US and Chinese officials announced a framework deal late Tuesday to put "meat on the bones" of last month's trade truce in Geneva. Scott Bessent left early. The Court of Appeals allowed reciprocal tariffs to continue for another month.

INTELLIGENCE. Despite rumoured differences with other members of the administration, notably Howard Lutnick, Bessent left negotiations in London early to testify before Congress. He is also speculated to be announced as Donald Trump's preferred candidate for Fed chair. He won't have missed much. Beyond China easing its rare earths controls for now, as in Geneva, officials appear to have only reached an agreement to someday agree an agreement.

FOR BUSINESS. By extending its review on a lower-court decision to block Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs, the appeals court has granted the White House valuable time to negotiate a more cogent outcome with Beijing. The US is allegedly eyeing an easing of semiconductor restrictions in exchange for China relaxing its rare earths controls. But China sees US chips, now only slightly more advanced, as less critical than its dominance of rare earths. It may hold out for more.

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MEXICO. UNITED STATES. Steel deal

A compromise is sought in a charged environment.

The US could give Mexico a fixed quota on steel, effectively avoiding 50% tariffs, sources told Reuters Tuesday. Kristi Noem criticised Claudia Sheinbaum for "encouraging" protests in Los Angeles. Mexico's president denied the charges.

INTELLIGENCE. Sheinbaum seems likely to get a mutually face-saving deal, in line with similar quotas granted to the

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