Just the three of us
The US, China, Russia, trade, the EU, India, and Pakistan.
The five things you need to know today:
UNITED STATES. CHINA. RUSSIA. A new, non-binary system comes into view.
WORLD TRADE. The US announces a 1 April deadline for reciprocal tariffs.
EUROPEAN UNION. Europe may face its Zeitenwende, whether it wants to or not.
INDIA. Modi gets the multipolar world he wants, but it won’t be easy.
PAKISTAN. Great power shifts will trouble the world’s biggest mendicant state.
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UNITED STATES. CHINA. RUSSIA. Tripolar disorder
A new, non-binary system comes into view.
Donald Trump proposed Thursday a three-way summit with Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping to halve their respective defence budgets. Moscow said it would welcome Trump at its Victory Day parade, which Xi has confirmed he’ll attend.
INTELLIGENCE. Beijing has also reportedly offered to host Trump and Putin, but none of these forums is as surprising as the one between “high-level people” from Ukraine, Russia and the US, which Trump said would meet today in Munich (to the disbelief of Kyiv and Berlin). Whether one, some, or all these meetings occur, Trump has indicated a ‘G3’ approach to diplomacy that will worry other powers, including this year’s G7 and G20 hosts, Canada and South Africa.
FOR BUSINESS. Trump has additionally proposed Russia rejoin the G7, in another shock to allies, but any apparent reunion with Moscow, or for that matter Beijing, should be seen as more a repeat of the Cold War’s 1945 Yalta conference, not Reykjavik in 1986. Even if Trump says otherwise, their rivalry is structural, not political. Europe will remain a potential flashpoint, as will Taiwan. Any meeting between Trump, Xi and Putin is only the first step to a deal.
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WORLD TRADE. Trick or treat?
The US announces a 1 April deadline for reciprocal tariffs.
The White House ordered plans for reciprocal tariffs across all countries Thursday. Commerce nominee Howard Lutnick said his team would have proposals ready for each by 1 April. Several countries said they'd review their trade barriers.
INTELLIGENCE. The April Fool’s deadline may have been a clue that everything Trump says is up for negotiation, but