Kharg before the horses
Iran, the US, Spain, Mongolia, and monetary policy.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. The US mulls a war crime before sending in the cavalry.
UNITED STATES. Hegseth is indispensable in his incompetence.
SPAIN. Sanchez tells Trump to vete a la mierda.
MONGOLIA. Khurelsukh appoints his third prime minister in a year.
INTEREST RATES. Stagflation returns as a credible prospect.
And don’t forget to connect with me on LinkedIn.
IRAN. Serious discussions
The US mulls a war crime before sending in the cavalry.
Donald Trump said he was in “serious discussions” with a “more reasonable regime”, but would blow up Kharg Island, “and possibly all desalinisation plants”, if Hormuz was not opened. Media said Trump wanted to leave the Strait to others.
INTELLIGENCE. Trump’s comments commit to escalating, deescalating, and walking. Markets are hoping he’ll just pack up and go, even if he destroys everything first. But Iran (and Israel and the Gulf) won’t simply let him. Reprisals would be swift. US casualties would invite further retribution. Trump still appears to think he’s winning. Any lasting damage to Kharg would need ground troops. No president starts a war expecting a quagmire. But most end that way.
FOR BUSINESS. Trump remains stuck. Leaving now would admit defeat. Committing a war crime first (by destroying civilian infrastructure, likely leading to the same for his allies) would make no difference other than to further drive-up oil prices. The White House said the Gulf might pay for it all (and leaked to the Wall Street Journal that others will clean the mess) but high politics is not a temper tantrum. Even if Trump were to flee, the bill would be his to pay.
UNITED STATES. The Pete principle
Hegseth is indispensable in his incompetence.
Pete Hegseth’s broker looked to buy a defence fund before the war, the Financial Times said. The Pope said God did not help "those who wage war" after Hegseth led prayers for “overwhelming violence against those who deserve no mercy”.
INTELLIGENCE. Hegseth is in office because of his flaws. Fitting a MAGA archetype,