Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
MIDDLE EAST. The region faces a week of deadly choices.
BRAZIL. Lula wins the ultimate comeback a second time.
VENEZUELA. Machado comes back to seize the moment.
SERBIA. A shock win for young protesters will shake Europe.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Kyiv gets a reprieve as Trump bows to the hawks.
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MIDDLE EAST. If not now, when?
The region faces a week of deadly choices.
Donald Trump told reporters Sunday "there will not be a strike today" on Iran, after earlier saying "it may be tomorrow". Benjamin Netanyahu denied the IDF had refused an order to attack over the weekend due to the timing of Israel's election.
INTELLIGENCE. The region has been convulsed by speculation of an imminent strike, punctuated by reports of explosions over Saudi pipelines and Iranian missile launchers. An AI image from Netanyahu, showing Tel Aviv under nuclear attack, hasn’t helped. For now, the risk of an Israeli strike ahead of its elections seems to be diminishing. Yet Trump continues to urge Israelis to vote for his ally, and it’s not impossible he could order an October surprise himself.
FOR BUSINESS. Netanyahu undoubtedly wants to hit Iran while he can, whether to forestall a vote he risks losing, or because he truly thinks Iran is once again close to a nuclear breakout (as has been claimed before). The calculus is less clear for Trump, who may also have an interest in democratic disruption, but has shown less stomach for a fight. Brent’s fall today suggests the market agrees, but his UN ambassador has mused the war could last another year.
BRAZIL. Blame it on Bolsonarismo
Lula wins the ultimate comeback a second time.
Lula da Silva won a fourth term in a 51.8% second round result. Flavio Bolsonaro demanded the result be annulled, saying the courts had “stolen” the election by extending voting by 90 minutes in places where public transport wasn’t available.
INTELLIGENCE. Bolsonaro’s sour grapes appear dangerously familiar. Lula’s third