Geopolitical Dispatch

Geopolitical Dispatch

Last chance salam

Iran, Egypt, Turkey, Israel, the US, and Canada.

Michael Feller's avatar
Michael Feller
Oct 27, 2026
∙ Paid
Bahram Gur, disguised as an ambassador, meets King Shangal, Safavid Shiraz, c. 1500-25, gouache heightened with gold on buff paper, private collection.

Hello,

Here are the five things you need to know today:

  • IRAN. The Sunni powers make another push for a deal.

  • EGYPT. TURKEY. Another layer is added to a messy contest.

  • ISRAEL. Washington looks to save Netanyahu, even if he loses.

  • UNITED STATES. Trump searches for fraudulent excuses.

  • CANADA. Carney could be another midterms winner.


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IRAN. Peace upon a time

The Sunni powers make another push for a deal.

Pakistani, Saudi, and Turkish officials met Iran's president Monday before he left for Moscow. Donald Trump said "we didn't start the war with Iran. Iran started the war with us." US strategic petroleum reserves fell to 282.6 million barrels.

INTELLIGENCE. Trump continues to claim he “holds the cards”, but his recent success in getting oil out seems to have peaked, with the Houthis claiming to have hit Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, and with more damage reported to tankers in Hormuz. After shunning recent advances made on the US’s behalf, Iran is now talking to the members of the Mecca Defence Alliance directly. Discussions reportedly included a $1 billion offer for a truce with the Houthis.

FOR BUSINESS. It’s unlikely the Houthis will stop fighting for the cost of a Patriot missile battery, but Brent crude has dipped below $115 on anticipation of a deal between Riyadh and Tehran, even if Washington isn’t involved. Further progress could be made on the sidelines of Vladimir Putin’s gas exporters summit today, which Qatar’s emir will also attend. Yet unless Trump gets a win, he may see no choice but to strike, bringing regional efforts back to square one.


EGYPT. TURKEY. My frenemy's frenemy is my frenemy

Another layer is added to a messy contest.

Egypt’s parliament approved a military deployment to Saudi Arabia as Kenyan media reported that 1,000 Egyptian personnel would be sent to Somalia under a bilateral agreement, rather than the African Union’s existing support mission.

INTELLIGENCE. Egypt, which isn’t a member of the Mecca alliance, appears to be

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