Geopolitical Dispatch

Geopolitical Dispatch

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Last rites

Ukraine, Russia, China, the Philippines, India, Pakistan, Iran, and shipping.

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Michael Feller
Apr 28, 2025
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St Peter's from Via Cassia, Oswald Achenbach, 1878, oil on canvas, National Museum, Wrocław, Poland.

The five things you need to know today:

  • UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Despite signals at the Vatican, the old positions revert.

  • CHINA. THE PHILIPPINES. Beijing snatches an island amid allied war games.

  • INDIA. PAKISTAN. Washington makes a belated call for calm.

  • IRAN. As nuclear talks continue, the issues become combustible.

  • SHIPPING. Trump introduces more trade confusion.

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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. No miracle

Despite signals at the Vatican, the old positions revert.

Donald Trump said Sunday his meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky at St Peter's Basilica "went well". The 15-minute one-on-one was followed by a social media post critical of Vladimir Putin. Russia launched 149 drones at Ukraine Sunday.

INTELLIGENCE. In the sanctified setting, and with the attentive body language, many interpreted the meeting as a turning point for the US’s position on the war. Yet a tweet doesn't make a policy, and Marco Rubio is still warning the US may walk away. And fresh from recovering all of Kursk, with the acknowledged assistance of North Korean troops, Moscow continues to act with impunity. Berlin Sunday urged Kyiv not to accept Washington’s current proposal.

FOR BUSINESS. Their first interaction since a disastrous White House press conference, Trump's meeting with Zelensky was high on symbolism but will likely be short on consequence. The fundamental positions of all interested parties – Ukraine, Russia, the US, the EU – remain far apart, and the unorthodox approach to negotiations so far means that at least two of those parties won't have the political space to accept or sell the necessary compromises.

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CHINA. THE PHILIPPINES. Sea what I did there?

Beijing snatches an island amid allied war games.

China's coast guard seized a sandbank 7 nautical miles to a major Filipino base, state broadcaster CCTV said Saturday. The US and the Philippines conducted live-fire drills Sunday in the province of Zambales, facing the South China Sea.

INTELLIGENCE. The coast guard appears to have quickly left the islet, known as Sandy Cay, which is a short ride from

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