Le Pen’s pal
France, China, Taiwan, the US, Israel, Qatar, and the DRC.
The five things you need to know today:
FRANCE. A leadership change could give a boost to the National Rally.
CHINA. TAIWAN. Unable to squash Taipei, the PLA seeks to bug it instead.
CHINA. UNITED STATES. Beijing and Washington escalate to a deal.
ISRAEL. QATAR. Two frenemies walk an ever-narrow line.
DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO. A new rebel group joins the fray.
Get full access to all five daily briefings. Upgrade today for our daily intelligence briefing written by former diplomats, modelled on the US Presidential Daily Brief, and relied on by business leaders and investors in over 140 countries.
FRANCE. Heir Jordan
A leadership change could give a boost to the National Rally.
National Rally parliamentary leader Marine Le Pen was given a four-year sentence and banned from politics for five years after a court convicted her Monday of misusing EU funds. Donald Trump condemned the ruling. Le Pen vowed to appeal.
INTELLIGENCE. Le Pen says she'll fight on, but her chances of running for president in 2027, for which she has been leading in the polls, look slim. Eventually, she may need to concede to protégé and party president Jordan Bardella, who, at 29, not only has more longevity but less baggage (Le Pen's controversial father is still a reason many don't vote for the hard-right party). In the meantime, her sentence only feeds a sense of outrage many feel about France’s elite.
FOR BUSINESS. The outrage is real, but the more Trump and allies feed it, the more mainstream voters will be turned off. Mirroring fortunes in Canada and the UK, Trump's antics have pushed Emmanuel Macron from a despised 50% average net disapproval to a merely unpopular 40%. US embassy interference on DEI isn’t helping either. RN may thus be minded to keep the high-ground and not confect a crisis to bring down the government of Macron’s prime minister.
Geopolitical Dispatch is brought to you by Geopolitical Strategy. We help businesses map, monitor and manage geopolitical risks with expert advice from former ambassadors, diplomats and intelligence officials.
CHINA. TAIWAN. Shell game
Unable to squash Taipei, the PLA seeks to bug it instead.
Taiwan said Tuesday it had detected 19 Chinese warships, including an aircraft carrier, in snap drills around the island. China's Eastern Command released several videos, including one called "Shell", depicting Taiwan's president as a bug.
INTELLIGENCE. The literally cartoonish message seems more PR stunt than genuine threat. While the drills aren’t