Geopolitical Dispatch

Geopolitical Dispatch

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Geopolitical Dispatch
Learning the hard way
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Learning the hard way

The US, Canada, Australia, Ukraine, Russia, and Poland.

Michael Feller's avatar
Michael Feller
May 28, 2025
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Geopolitical Dispatch
Learning the hard way
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He's a noisy little so-and-so..., Theodor Seuss Geisel, 1941, Dr Seuss Political Cartoons Collection, UC San Diego Library, La Jolla.

The five things you need to know today:

  • UNITED STATES. A student visa pause risks multiple harms.

  • CANADA. Ottawa delivers a king hit that may hurt London.

  • AUSTRALIA. Cerberus bids for a Chinese-owned port.

  • UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Ankara assists the Kremlin’s peacemaking pantomime.

  • POLAND. Washington tells Poles how to vote.

Get full access to all five daily briefings. Upgrade today for our daily intelligence briefing written by former diplomats, modelled on the US Presidential Daily Brief, and relied on by business leaders and investors in 150 countries.

UNITED STATES. School’s out

A student visa pause risks multiple harms.

The White House directed agencies to review contracts with Harvard Tuesday, a day after the president said he might revoke $3 billion in grants. Student visa interviews were halted at US embassies amid a review of screening processes.

INTELLIGENCE. The State Department is considering a review of any applicant's social media use, following the detention of several students over their criticism of Israel's war in Gaza. In theory, the move would refine existing processes. In practice, it will have a chilling effect. Almost all college-age students, regardless of their location, will have shared or posted political material. They may decide to take their money and opinions to Canada or the UK instead.

FOR BUSINESS. The moves, including against Harvard, play into culture war politics but will have real-world economic impacts. While the US may not be competitive in manufacturing, it is world-class in education, even if its campuses have occasionally blundered into shrill social debates. Wrecking this industry, just as a student debt crisis threatens to infect consumer spending and credit, is dumb policy. And you don’t need an Ivy League degree to understand why.

Geopolitical Dispatch is brought to you by Geopolitical Strategy. We help businesses map, monitor and manage geopolitical risks with expert advice from former ambassadors, diplomats and intelligence officials.

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CANADA. Heavy lies the crown

Carney delivers a king hit that may hurt Starmer.

King Charles opened Canada's parliament Tuesday, saying it was facing "unprecedented" challenges but was "strong and free". Donald Trump claimed Canada was "considering" an offer to join the US and enjoy missile defences for free.

INTELLIGENCE. Shortly after the speech, Trump said Canadians would either pay $61 billion to join the Golden Dome

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