Lee from behind

South Korea, Japan, Mongolia, India, and NATO.

Bamboo in the Wind, Yi Jeong (Taneun), early 17th century, ink on silk with gold, Metropolitan Museum of Art, New York.

The five things you need to know today:

• SOUTH KOREA. Lee Jae-myung takes up an uncertain mandate.

• JAPAN. Speculation rises of a snap election.

• MONGOLIA. The prime minister's resignation is about more than graft.

• INDIA. Delhi bristles at Washington's divide-and-rule tactics.

• NATO. Another showdown looms on spending.

Connect with me on LinkedIn and X (Twitter).

Get full access to all five daily briefings. Upgrade today for our daily intelligence briefing written by former diplomats, modelled on the US Presidential Daily Brief, and relied on by business leaders and investors in 150 countries.

SOUTH KOREA. Faint praise

Lee Jae-myung takes up an uncertain mandate.

President Lee Jae-myung was sworn in Wednesday after receiving 49.4% of votes in a contest that saw a 28-year-record turnout. The White House could the contest "free and fair" but raised concerns with “Chinese interference and influence”.

INTELLIGENCE. Exit polls suggested a 51.7% victory for Lee, likened to Korea's Bernie Sanders, but the less emphatic result and Washington's cautious statement (MAGA influencers have called Lee a "communist") suggest an uphill battle for the new president, who has sought extra time to negotiate a US trade deal (media has reported Seoul received a letter demanding a 24-hour “best offer”). Lee has also pledged to draft a second supplementary budget.

FOR BUSINESS. After his predecessor shocked the nation with attempted martial law, Lee has a chance to stabilise Korea's polarised politics, but any respite, domestic and international, is likely to be short-lived. While his Democratic Party also controls parliament, he can expect a difficult reception from Seoul’s conservative business sector as well as Korea’s neighbours. He also faces five criminal cases, which may be exempted from his presidential immunity.

Geopolitical Dispatch is brought to you by Geopolitical Strategy. We help businesses map, monitor and manage geopolitical risks with expert advice from former ambassadors, diplomats and intelligence officials.

JAPAN. Crash diet

Speculation rises of a snap election.

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba was considering dissolving parliament if the opposition called a no-confidence vote, media said Tuesday. Ishiba's junior coalition partner would propose a tax cut for food, the Yomiuri Shimbun said Wednesday.

INTELLIGENCE. Running a minority government and a relative outsider in his own Liberal Democratic Party, Ishiba is