Look who’s talking
Iran, Ethiopia, India, Myanmar, and Indonesia.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Trump claims negotiation as markets eye capitulation.
ETHIOPIA. Another conflict hits the Red Sea periphery.
INDIA. Modi’s exam crisis reaches the ballot box.
MYANMAR. The junta takes a gamble with Suu Kyi’s reappearance.
INDONESIA. Amid government dysfunction, business prepares for the worst.
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IRAN. Unbelievably duplicitous
Trump claims negotiation as markets eye capitulation.
Donald Trump said Iran was “unbelievably duplicitous” for claiming it wasn’t in talks as a US base in Kuwait came under drone attack and a ship off Oman was hit. Trump warned Tehran faced “decapitation” if it didn’t agree to end the conflict.
INTELLIGENCE. Oil futures have barely risen on the latest strikes, with markets assessing Trump just wants to end the war on any terms. Increasingly, these appear to be even more favourable to Iran than the 17 June MoU, insofar as a $300 billion investment pledge may become a transfer and two channels in Hormuz become one (controlled by Iran), with or without a toll. Some crude is still exiting the strait amid the chaos, but it’s a fraction of pre-war levels.
FOR BUSINESS. Trump isn’t checkmated – he can still choose to escalate – but judging from past behaviour and a need for lower oil (demanding Chevron drop prices; ordering drilling off California), he’s in the zone of agreement. The question is whether Iran wants to string this out, for regime change at the midterms, or take the win. In the meantime, it’s playing good and bad cop, with the IRGC visibly lambasting the foreign ministry over talks with Oman.
ETHIOPIA. Tigray for tat
Another conflict hits the Red Sea periphery.
Sudan said border camps had been attacked after hundreds of Tigrayans fled from heavy fighting with Ethiopian forces. Ethiopia said Tigrayan rebels hiding in Sudan had launched a spate of weekend attacks, endangering a three-year peace.
INTELLIGENCE. The Tigray People’s Liberation Front has been given de facto