Low-keying, high-tailing
Iran, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Palestine, Syria, Russia, and Ukraine.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Trump tries to pull out from the fire.
YEMEN. SAUDI ARABIA. The Houthis test a new alliance.
ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Netanyahu rejects a plan for Gaza.
SYRIA. RUSSIA. Moscow keeps its Mediterranean presence.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. NATO is probed for another TACO.
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IRAN. Escape key
Trump tries to pull out from the fire.
Donald Trump told Axios he was “low-keying it” rather than mulling new strikes. Iran said it was near a deal with Oman, but the US must meet new demands for Hormuz to open. Trump may forego a nuclear deal, the Wall Street Journal said.
INTELLIGENCE. There’s a risk Tehran might push too hard, but so far, it seems to be getting all it wanted plus more. While its economy is wrecked, Iran’s strategic gains will be ample compensation for its leaders. Indeed, they may be happy to play up the material losses, both to help Trump find a domestic offramp (he has already pivoted the narrative to “Iran has no money!”), and justify claims for $300 billion in compensation, $100 billion in unfrozen funds, and tolls.
FOR BUSINESS. A six-time bankrupt, Trump will have fewer issues in cutting his losses than any other president, but he’ll likely need more than lower oil prices to sell the surrender. If Iran is serious, it will help him do that. If it just wants humiliation (or Jimmy Carter-style regime change) it risks the conflict re-escalating. And while the US has worn down its missile stocks, it can still do further damage. Range-trading crude prices reflect the dilemma of a cornered Trump.
YEMEN. SAUDI ARABIA. Clouds on the Sunni side
The Houthis test a new alliance.
Yemen’s Houthi militia attacked Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery for a second time, just days after Riyadh signed a defence pact with Ankara and Islamabad. Turkey said the “Mecca Joint Defence Agreement” was the same as NATO’s Article 5.
INTELLIGENCE. The Iran-backed Houthis have attacked a refinery already closed for