Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
BRAZIL. The old moon could still overshadow the son.
CANADA. A vote to stay with Ottawa, and away from Washington.
IRAN. Hegseth visits Israel amid explosions in Konarak.
RED SEA. A regional contest grows more complex.
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. A proposed Yalta 2.0 could amount to little.
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BRAZIL. Waxing phase
The old moon could still overshadow the son.
Polls narrowed ahead of Sunday's presidential run-off following the first of two debates between frontrunner Flavio Bolsonaro and incumbent Lula da Silva. Meta was given 24 hours to prove it had given equal treatment to the candidates.
INTELLIGENCE. By denouncing Silicon Valley’s “interference”, Lula has tried to make the vote about Washington. Bolsonaro has tried to make it about judicial overreach, amnesty for his father, and crime. Bolsonaro is still favourite to win, but polling is back within the margin of error and the momentum is Lula’s. The president will hope that new spending promises and labour reforms will bring out many of the 33.4 million voters who skipped the first round.
FOR BUSINESS. With absent voters 14 times larger than the first-round gap between Bolsonaro, 47% and Lula, 45%, the current 77% Polymarket odds for the former’s victory seem generous. They also ignore the likelihood that Lula, a seasoned campaigner (even if twice Bolsonaro’s age), will repeat his strong performance in the second debate. Bolsonaro also did better than expected, but from a low bar. In 2016, he fainted during a Rio mayoral debate. He lost.
CANADA. It doesn’t take Alberta Einstein
A vote to stay with Ottawa, and away from Washington.
Early results Tuesday showed around 76% of Albertans voted against holding an independence referendum, a larger than expected majority. Mark Carney said the cause of a deadly fire at Alberta’s Wainwright military base was still unknown.
INTELLIGENCE. Saturday's sudden prairie fire killed four soldiers training ahead of a