Make Avocado Great Again
Mexico, the US, Panama, Venezuela, South Africa, Israel, and Syria.
The five things you need to know today:
MEXICO. UNITED STATES. A day to determine bark versus bite.
PANAMA. A spat over the canal seems closer to resolution.
VENEZUELA. A deal on migration is an implicit endorsement of Maduro.
SOUTH AFRICA. Pretoria’s fault lines go global.
ISRAEL. SYRIA. New obstacles to regional rapprochement loom.
Get full access to all five daily briefings. Upgrade today for the only daily intelligence briefing written by former diplomats, modelled on the US Presidential Daily Brief, and relied on by business leaders and investors in over 140 countries.
MEXICO. UNITED STATES. Crunch time
A day to determine bark versus bite.
Donald Trump said he would speak to the leaders of Mexico and Canada Monday, before 25% tariffs signed Saturday are due to take effect. Military strikes on Mexican cartels were “on the table” Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said.
INTELLIGENCE. Whether Trump ultimately sees tariffs as a means or an end, the current threat is more of a cudgel, linked explicitly to fentanyl and migration, rather than the balance of trade. This gives Mexico a way out other than retaliatory steps, which would only harm its economy more. And by dragging Canada (and China) into the net, Mexico has more potential sources of funding for any creative solution (like a reprise of Nixon’s 1969 Operation Intercept).
FOR BUSINESS. Markets, eyeing threats not just from Mexico, but Ottawa and Beijing, have begun to panic. Politically, should a solution not be found in the next few days, the test will be on 10 February, when Super Bowl fans notice their guacamole costs 25% more. Mexico exported 137,500 tonnes of (highly perishable) avocado for last year’s game. National Maple Syrup Day, by contrast, isn’t until December, also the peak season for purchases of Chinese imports.
Geopolitical Dispatch is brought to you by Geopolitical Strategy. We help businesses map, monitor and manage geopolitical risks with expert advice from former ambassadors, diplomats and intelligence officials.
PANAMA. Any port in a storm
A spat over the canal seems closer to resolution.
President Jose Raul Mulino told Secretary of State Marco Rubio Sunday the Panama Canal was not up for negotiation but signalled he would review Chinese port investments. Rubio said China's "position of influence" was unacceptable.
INTELLIGENCE. Trump will likely continue to threaten the canal, as and when it suits him, but a potential crisis appears to