Make Putin Appear Generous Again
Ukraine, Russia, Myanmar, Australia, South Africa, and Venezuela.
The five things you need to know today:
UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Trump increases the pressure on Zelensky.
MYANMAR. An anarchic warzone invites Chinese intervention.
AUSTRALIA. As politics moves to the fringe, voters will look to the centre.
SOUTH AFRICA. Washington’s interventions confuse a complicated picture.
VENEZUELA. A threat to Chevron’s exemptions amid electoral delays.
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UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Good czar, bad czar
Trump increases the pressure on Zelensky.
Donald Trump called Volodymyr Zelensky a “modestly successful comedian” and “dictator” Wednesday amid a salvo on Kyiv’s reluctance to back US-Russia talks. Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said Trump was “200% right”.
INTELLIGENCE. This is what multipolarity looks like. To Trump, the benefits of appeasing Russia, to get it to sign a deal before it takes more of Ukraine, will outweigh any costs to US credibility among European allies (or the costs of an angry Ukraine). Arguments that Vladimir Putin economically needs a deal are broadly correct, but the Kremlin can survive for longer than it would take for Trump to reprovision Ukraine so as to negotiate from any position of strength.
FOR BUSINESS. Trump needs to act badder than Putin to get Zelensky (or whoever comes next) to surrender. The ugliness of wartime diplomacy is obvious to seasoned Ukrainian strategists but bleating from Europe slows the cruel process. Trump’s appeasement template is not that of Munich in 1938 (as his critics claim), or of Yalta in 1945, but those of Paris, both in 1856, which ended the Crimean War, and 1973, which ended US involvement in Vietnam.
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MYANMAR. Guns, fraud, and stealing
An anarchic warzone invites Chinese intervention.
China repatriated the first batch of citizens who had been coerced into Myanmar-based "scam centres" Thursday. Peace talks between the junta and a northeastern militia broke down in Kunming. A law was adopted on foreign mercenaries.
INTELLIGENCE. Myanmar’s junta controls a decreasing slice of a war-wracked country four years after its coup d’etat.