Making great television
The US, Canada, China, Germany, and Serbia.
The five things you need to know today:
UNITED STATES. Policy-as-performance won’t cut it in the big league.
CANADA. Ottawa is forced into Washington’s disinformation space.
CHINA. Xi seems to invite Trump’s antics.
GERMANY. The new centrist alliance starts early.
SERBIA. Attempts to expose a murky process could backfire.
Get full access to all five daily briefings. Upgrade today for our daily intelligence briefing written by former diplomats, modelled on the US Presidential Daily Brief, and relied on by business leaders and investors in over 140 countries.
UNITED STATES. Dealer’s dilemma
Policy-as-performance won’t cut it in the big league.
In a 100-minute speech to Congress Tuesday, Donald Trump touched on foreign policy, including vows to "get" Greenland, "take back" the Panama Canal, and have Mexico and Canada "do much more than they’ve done" on narcotics.
INTELLIGENCE. The speech was energetic, and often entertaining, but glossed over the real challenges facing both chambers and the American public. Stocks will likely rally Wednesday, due to a perceived softening on Mexico and Canada (reinforced by Howard Lutnick’s comments about “meeting in the middle”), but this does not mean the market has much support for the White House’s polices (the S&P500 has erased all its gains since the president’s election).
FOR BUSINESS. Trump’s supporters have heralded a Ukrainian letter of apology, an Arab Gaza proposal, and BlackRock’s purchase of two Panamanian ports as “art of the deal” in action. Yet inflation, debt and long-term US security will unlikely be obtained through the negotiating style, or the mix of measures (mostly via executive order), Trump has shown so far. And the president’s bombast, while domestically appealing to some, is falling flat overseas.
Geopolitical Dispatch is brought to you by Geopolitical Strategy. We help businesses map, monitor and manage geopolitical risks with expert advice from former ambassadors, diplomats and intelligence officials.
CANADA. Trudeau and lies
Ottawa is forced into Washington’s disinformation space.
Justin Trudeau announced 25% duties on $155 billion worth of US goods Tuesday, saying Donald Trump's "very dumb" trade war was designed to “make it easier to annex us". Ontario said electricity supplies would be cut "with a smile".
INTELLIGENCE. Canada’s rapid response stands in contrast to Mexico’s more strategic detachment, but with the