Mano-Omano
Iran, the Indian Ocean, Cuba, Russia, and the Caucasus.
Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
IRAN. Ahead of negotiations in Oman, the tough get talking.
DIEGO GARCIA. Washington accepts new realities in the Indian Ocean.
CUBA. The pressure campaign seems to run out of puff.
RUSSIA. Though demurring on a treaty, the Pentagon reengages.
THE CAUCASUS. Vance’s visit could run into old obstacles.
Geopolitical Dispatch is a daily strategic briefing for business leaders and investors, based on the US Presidential Daily Brief. Covering five top global developments at 5 am Eastern Time, Geopolitical Dispatch gives you visibility of events in context.
IRAN. Muscats blazing
Ahead of negotiations in Oman, the tough get talking.
US-Iran talks began in Muscat Friday though it was unclear if topics the US wished to discuss beyond nuclear stockpiles – including missiles and regional proxies – would be broached. Donald Trump reminded he still had military “options”.
INTELLIGENCE. With Trump’s armada in the Gulf, the talks are being held at gunpoint. Yet Iran is seemingly dictating the agenda after winning on the venue. Among the Gulf states, Oman is perhaps the closest to Iran and has been accused of providing support to Yemen’s Houthi militia. Still, talk is better than war. And even if Tehran is just playing for time, the very fact of engagement is a sign that the hardliners, who’d prefer not to talk at all, don’t have full control.
FOR BUSINESS. If an understanding is reached between negotiators, it doesn’t mean Ali Khamenei will accept, but his outright refusal of a deal could encourage a Maduro-style decapitation strike, thus a subtler process is more likely. As in 2025, this may mean further, circular talks, frustrating Trump, who has his own hardliners to manage. Elite factions are in a bind as the clock ticks closer to the 47th anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution on 11 February.
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DIEGO GARCIA. Where in the world?
Washington accepts new realities in the Indian Ocean.
Trump eased criticism on Keir Starmer’s decision to hand Diego Garcia to Mauritius, saying the deal was “the best he could make.” India said it would sign a trade pact with the US in March. Australia signed a security treaty with Indonesia.
INTELLIGENCE. Mauritius is expected to host a US delegation later this month to