Hello,
Here are the five things you need to know today:
YEMEN. SAUDI ARABIA. The Houthis face the blowback.
ETHIOPIA. ERITREA. Taking back Mekelle, Abiy eyes the coast.
PAKISTAN. Munir faces a repeat of November 2024.
INDIA. Youth protesters get an unexpected ally.
PLAGUE. A “pneumonia of unknown aetiology” sees lockdowns.
You’re reading one of today’s five analyses.
Subscribe to read all five, every weekday.
YEMEN. SAUDI ARABIA. Fearful asymmetry
The Houthis face the blowback.
Yemen’s Saudi-backed government claimed to recapture the port of Mocha, while the Houthis claimed to take the city of Taiz. Turkey and Pakistan agreed to deploy under the Mecca security pact. The US eased restrictions on red diesel.
INTELLIGENCE. Oil prices initially eased on claims the Houthis had lost their recently gained Bab-al-Mandeb chokehold, but having now expanded the war against the Iran-aligned group, which controls the Yemeni heartland, Saudi Arabia could now reap the whirlwind. More fires have been reported at Aramco refineries, and the East-West pipeline, while still operating, is under fresh attack. The Houthis have also claimed to have hit Riyadh’s main airport.
FOR BUSINESS. Previous Houthi wars have been a case study in asymmetry. Riyadh and its allies will need time, money and manpower to end the threat. The US, for its part, shows little inclination for any of this, especially ahead of the midterms. But the apparent downing of a US Navy Seahawk off Yanbu Monday suggests it may have little choice. In the meantime, Donald Trump continues to blame the Democrats and Ukraine for stubbornly high oil prices.
ETHIOPIA. ERITREA. Tigray by the tail
Taking back Mekelle, Abiy eyes the coast.
Abiy Ahmed reiterated calls for a Red Sea port after Eritrea joined Egypt, Somalia, and Sudan to push back on Ethiopia’s prime minister. Fighting continued after Ethiopia seized the once rebel-held Mekelle, capital of Tigray, a northern state.
INTELLIGENCE. Tigray adjoins Eritrea and the parts of Sudan still controlled by its